The forecast for Ethereum (ETH) is contradictory. The crypto has accumulated a weekly increase of 3.57%, trading around $2,540. In light of this, expectations for a possible recovery towards $5,000 are growing. However, on-chain and volume indicators do not support this projection in the short term.
Data from Santiment shows that network development activity has significantly decreased since mid-May. The number of commits in Ethereum's main repositories fell from 71 to just over 25, a decline of nearly 65%.
In fact, this reduction in technical engagement contrasts with the recent appreciation of the currency, signaling a slowdown in the evolution of the protocol's base layer.
Development activity and ETH price: Santiment
This type of divergence usually shows that the price advances without the market showing structural improvements, which weakens the fundamentals for a sustained rise. In December 2024, analysts observed a similar pattern when the increase in technical activity did not result in significant appreciation.
HODL Waves show a reduction in long-term positions
Data from Glassnode reveals that most investors now hold ETH for periods between 1 and 6 months. Meanwhile, volumes in long-term wallets (with more than 6 months of holding) have decreased, even during the recent price recovery.
HODL Waves and ETH price: Glassnode
This behavior suggests a greater presence of short-term investors, which tends to reduce the asset's resilience in the face of corrective movements. Indeed, in previous appreciation cycles, ETH held for over a year represented a more relevant share, reinforcing market conviction.
CMF and OBV indicate a lack of institutional support
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that measures volume-weighted accumulation, briefly rose between April and May when ETH advanced from $1,300 to $2,700. Since then, the CMF has remained below 0.10, indicating a lack of significant buying flow.
ETH Price and CMF: TradingView
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) also remains contained, oscillating below -2.12 million. Additionally, the absence of large cumulative volumes, especially from large wallets, reinforces the lack of support for a possible surge towards $5,000.
Technical resistances and supports in the short term
Ethereum faces resistance at $2,647. If this level is not surpassed, the next supports are at $2,491 and $2,467. If the price breaks below $2,467, there could be a retracement to $2,376.
OBV and ETH Price Levels: TradingView
The lack of clear signals in OBV and CMF indicates that $2,861 should act as strong resistance. Thus, the target of $5,000 still seems distant, being supported more by expectations than by technical fundamentals.
However, if ETH breaks and consolidates above $2,647, the bearish scenario could be invalidated. For this, a new push would be necessary, supported by a recovery in developer activity and consistent growth in CMF.
The article Ethereum Forecast: crypto rises 3.57% this week was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
