One, fundamental understanding of contract trading: Establishing underlying logic
1. The essence of contract trading
Contract trading (futures contract) is a derivative trading based on cryptocurrency price fluctuations, allowing for leveraged utilization of funds to achieve both long (bullish) and short (bearish) operations. Profit/loss is directly linked to changes in the underlying asset price and leverage multiple.
2. Core terminology explanation
• Leverage multiple: For example, 10x leverage allows 1 BTC of capital to open a position worth 10 BTC, with profits/losses magnified by 10 times (note: high leverage comes with high risk).
• Margin model:
◦ Isolated margin: Calculate margin independently for each position, with risk isolation (suitable for diversified operations);
◦ Cross margin: Account assets share margin, with stronger risk resistance (caution against overall liquidation).
• Liquidation price: When the position loss reaches a pre-set system threshold, it will trigger forced liquidation, which may lead to loss of principal.
Two, risk control: Survival-first principle
Position management iron rule
• Single position opening ≤ 5% of capital: Risk of a single trade is controllable, avoiding significant losses from a single mistake;
• Leverage graded use:
◦ Beginners ≤ 10x leverage, gradually increase after becoming proficient;
◦ 50-100x high leverage is only suitable for extreme market short-term speculation (requires strong market sense and risk control);
• Always set take profit and stop loss
Three, core trading strategy: The art of following the trend
1. Trend-following strategy (mainstream market)
• Trend confirmation tools:
◦ EMA (Exponential Moving Average): EMA12/EMA26 golden cross/death cross to determine short-term trends;
◦ MACD: Bullish dominance above the zero line, bearish dominance below the zero line;
• Breakout trading method: Go long when the price breaks through key resistance levels (such as historical highs), set stop loss below the recent low; go short when breaking support levels, set stop loss above the recent high.
2. Range oscillation arbitrage (sideways market)
• Oscillation range definition: Identify oscillation boundaries through the middle and upper/lower bands of Bollinger Bands (BOLL);
• Operating logic: Short in the overbought zone when RSI ≥ 70, target the lower band support; go long in the oversold zone when RSI ≤ 30, target the upper band resistance, set stop loss 2% outside the range.
3. Hedging strategy (risk-neutral thinking)
• Spot + contract hedging: When holding 10 BTC in spot, open a 0.5 BTC short position (5% position), hedge against market crash risks while retaining upside potential;
• Cross-currency hedging: Go long on strong currencies (such as ETH) while shorting weak currencies (such as XMR), capturing opportunities for differentiation between currencies.
Four, beginner's pitfall guide: Beware of fatal misconceptions
Leverage abuse risk
• Under 100x leverage, a 1% reverse price fluctuation will lead to liquidation, with a survival rate of less than 5%; beginners are strictly prohibited from trying;
• Remember the formula: Forced liquidation risk rate = (account equity / position value) × leverage multiple, must be maintained in a safe range above 150%.
Conclusion
The core of contract trading is not to pursue short-term windfall profits, but to continuously accumulate advantages through risk-controlled strategies in market cycles.#非农就业数据来袭 #美国加征关税 $BTC$ETH