Dear friends, I am Chan Lian. Today’s 1-hour K-line for BTC is vividly playing out a scene of "after passion comes wisdom." Let’s talk about it by looking at the chart, breaking it down and discussing it.
First, let’s sort out the technical aspects: the upward momentum is weak, support has been broken, and we are entering a defensive posture.
A few days ago, it was truly a time of "spring wind and swift horse hooves." From around 10250 on the 7th, I stepped on the gas all the way, and in less than two days, it firmly reached 10970 (from the end of the 8th to the early morning of the 9th). This surge was accompanied by considerable trading volume, looking like it was headed for previous highs or even higher. BUT! The problem arose today. After prices touched around 10970, there was a clear feeling of "weak legs," and it took a lot of effort to push upwards, a typical case of "the strong bow at its end." By the afternoon (especially around 17:00), it couldn’t hold up anymore and began to slide down. The most critical part was that the previously solid little platform — the "territory" around 10860 to 10880 — was mercilessly breached! This position had held firm during several previous retests and was an important psychological defense line for short-term bulls. With this breach, the technical outlook immediately turned weak in the short term. Where is the price now? It has slipped into the range of 10700 - 10740, temporarily considered a stop. 10700 has become the last "Maginot Line" for the bulls; whether it can hold is crucial for whether this breath can continue in the short term. The recently breached 10860-10880 has immediately transformed into a "ceiling" (resistance level). To regain strength, it must first break through this "ceiling."
Why is the disappointment so strong? Just a technical correction is not enough; the news has stabbed the knife!
Locking in profits is instinctual: From 10250 to 10970, a space of over 700 dollars, many brothers who previously set up positions or bottom-fished have seen considerable floating profits. When they see it can’t climb any higher, the instinctive reaction is to "run first" to secure profits, which naturally leads to selling pressure. This is a form of "physiological adjustment" in the market.
Sudden black swan event: HTX & HECO cross-chain bridge has been compromised again! 115 million dollars gone to waste! (Search for today’s core news) This is the "catalyst" or even the "trigger" for this afternoon’s plunge! Those in the circle understand that security incidents, especially involving major exchanges (HTX is part of the Huobi system) and core infrastructures (cross-chain bridges), have an immediate and profound impact on market sentiment. Once the news broke, the market's nerves tightened immediately: "Are there projects/institutions that need to sell coins to fill gaps again?", "With such significant security vulnerabilities, can funds still dare to enter?", "Will this trigger a chain reaction?" Panic (FUD) spread instantly, causing some risk-averse funds to dump their positions without hesitation. Such black swans tend to have the greatest destructive power when the market is already hesitant (struggling to rise). Think about last year's LUNA, FTX; which time was not a bloody lesson? The market is now like a startled bird.
Chan Lian's viewpoint: Be cautious in the short term, keep a close watch on key levels and the aftershocks of the news.
The aftereffects of the security incident are still lingering: The theft of 115 million is not a small amount. How HTX/HECO will respond (whether to use reserves, whether to suspend withdrawals), the hackers' movements (will they crash the market), and whether the market's concerns about the safety of other projects will spread—all these factors have uncertainties. The negative impacts have not fully landed! It's like a sword hanging over our heads; until there’s a clear resolution, bulls dare not act easily.
Is 10700 a "floor" or a "trap"? Technically, there are indeed signs of short-term support near 10700. But! Under the impact of significant negative news, the reliability of technical support may be compromised. My experience is that during such times, don’t rush to shout "bottom-fishing"; it’s better to miss than to make a mistake. To confirm the effectiveness of this support, we need to see: the price stabilizing in this area (no new lows) + a rebound accompanied by volume (real money entering) + preferably a quick return above 10800 (confirming the break was a false drop). Otherwise, this may just be a "rest stop," and the next stop may head straight towards that frequently appearing area around 10660 (or even lower) to find stronger support.
10860-10880: The dividing line between strong and weak. This recently breached area is now a core observation point. If the price can’t even return to this level, or if it touches it and gets knocked down, then the short-term weak pattern will be hard to change. Only if it stands back with volume can we say that this wave of bearish attacks has been temporarily resolved, and sentiment may have a chance to recover.
Operational thoughts:
Spot: Those who didn’t sell at high positions before now find cutting losses to be of little significance (unless you are extremely bearish), but absolutely do not rush to add positions at this level! Be patient and wait for two signals: first, can 10700 effectively hold and rebound with volume; second, can it return above 10860? Until both signals appear, lying flat and observing is the best strategy.
Contract: In the current environment, high leverage is suicidal! With volatile fluctuations and sensitivity to news, it is easy to be liquidated by sudden spikes. If you want to trade, you can only do so with a very small position, in and out quickly, and with strict stop-losses. Betting against the trend for a rebound? The risk-reward ratio is extremely poor, not recommended! Following the trend with a short? You must also be wary of rebounds at key support levels (though the rebound strength looks weak now).
Key focus: Trading volume! Downturn with increased volume, rebound with no volume? Then it has to drop! Downturn with reduced volume, rebound with increased volume? There might be hope. Unfortunately, the chart does not show volume; in real trading, be sure to keep a close eye on it.
Friends, the "floor" at 10700 is undergoing a dual pressure test from bears and negative news!
The aftershocks of the HTX/HECO theft have not yet subsided; could the next potential "thunder" be tonight’s CPI data from the U.S.?
The market is now like a startled bird, where even the slightest movement can trigger severe volatility. Is it a desperate counterattack to return to the upward channel, or will it continue to probe for a bottom? The key lies in whether 10700 can hold, and whether any new "black swans" will emerge in the news.
I am Chan Lian, follow me!!! Let’s keep a close watch on the market, stay alert, manage positions well, and don’t let the cooked duck (profits) fly away, and definitely don’t get hit by sudden "cold arrows" (negative news)! Remember, surviving gives you the right to talk about a bull market!