CoinVoice has recently learned that a CryptoQuant analyst stated that the BCMI index has recently broken through the 0.50 neutral line, indicating that the Bitcoin market is in the 'mid-cycle, warming up' phase. The Fear and Greed Index is in the greed range above 70, while the MVRV (~2.0) and NUPL (~0.4) indicators suggest that market valuation has only reached half of the euphoric level.
Historical patterns show that when the BCMI index enters the 0.60-0.75 range, there is usually a 20-35% pullback before the cycle peak. Although ETF capital continues to flow in and self-custody behavior is alleviating on-chain volatility, the crowded state of the derivatives market may still trigger sudden pullbacks.
Analysts suggest: Spot investors should gradually build positions and set trailing stop losses; holders should maintain core positions and start hedging or reducing leverage when BCMI reaches above 0.60; when the index exceeds 0.75, lock in profits and reduce risk. [Original link]