In a bear market, many are left holding the bag; in a bull market, many are cannon fodder - this current wave of volatility is indeed a golden pit for old investors to pick up chips!
Core contradiction in the market: A tug-of-war between bulls and bears in a volume-constrained situation.
Current price is stuck at 0.3333 USDT, with technical indicators showing a typical 'chicken rib market':
Upper resistance: 0.3628 USDT (historical peak) accumulates three layers of selling pressure, with the psychological barrier at 0.35 forming a short-term ceiling.
Lower support: The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level at 0.2069 forms the ultimate defense line, but the short-term key support is at 0.29 (the starting point of the rebound on July 7).
On-chain monitoring shows that major funds continue to remain cautious, with large transfers of only 120,000 USDT in the past 12 hours, confirming the strategy of waiting and seeing by large holders.
News dynamics
Technical support boosts confidence: After the network failure was fixed on July 7, the price surged against the trend by 74.87% (0.267→0.29 USDT), but today's upward momentum is weak.
Accelerated ecological construction: The Vanguard 3.0 community plan promotes a 40% surge in new addresses (on-chain data), but the exchange's inventory proportion of 18% remains at a dangerous level.
Market sentiment differentiation: Although the 24-hour trading volume surged by 1119.2% (reaching 367 million), the derivatives market did not follow - Binance perpetual contract funding rate is only 0.01%, indicating cautious leveraged funds.
My practical simulation
Bottom fishing signal: Observe whether the 0.29 support zone can form a 'double bottom structure' (refer to the July 5 rebound at 0.28), coupled with large on-chain withdrawals (the current exchange inventory needs to drop below 15%).
Stop-loss discipline: If it breaks below 0.285 (daily MA30) and does not recover within half an hour, then stop loss to prevent the risk of 'false breakthroughs and true entrapments' (refer to the July 2 SOL trend).
Beware of market maker manipulation risks: Investment institution DWF Labs is simultaneously involved in Viction market making, and historical operations often involve 'sharp rises followed by crashes' (multiple cases of partner projects going to zero). The current technical indicators show divergence - the RSI value at 57.88 is in a healthy range, but the MACD histogram is continuously shrinking, requiring caution against a trap for the unwary.
Is loneliness a stumbling block to success? Kick it away! The converging team builds bridges, while ambitious madmen get priority passage!
