$BTC We mentioned in our video yesterday morning that the market this week will be dominated by the tariffs from the 'understanding king', starting from midnight when various countries began to announce tariffs (negative risk for the market). The 'understanding king' sent letters to 14 countries as expected, and Bitcoin keeps making narrow downward movements in the rebound, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets, causing gold to rise and US stocks to fall due to Bitcoin's decline.

All the tariffs announced at midnight were relatively mild and did not seem outrageous, aligning with expectations, as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had already hinted at them over the weekend. The reciprocal tariffs are based on a 10% increase, suggesting they won't be less than 20%. The 'understanding king' had previously mentioned that tariffs could range from 10% to 70%. The market has already digested these expectations, so the decline we are seeing is not very significant and does not resemble the sharp sell-off from April.

The 'understanding king' extended the originally scheduled tariff deadline from September 9 to August 1, indicating an open attitude towards further negotiations, meaning there are still three weeks for discussions. Countries that are confident will naturally retaliate and continue negotiations. The longer the tug-of-war lasts, the higher the uncertainty regarding tariffs, increasing the risk of a downturn in the cryptocurrency market. The small decline in Bitcoin observed at 9 AM was primarily due to Japan's initial retaliation, so any further retaliation could provide us with opportunities to consider short-term selling. I personally believe that a 15% tariff is the maximum range that the US can accept, which will not significantly impact the normal market range. There will still be multiple changes afterwards. The higher the tariffs, the higher the cost of exported goods, which is negative for US companies' stock market (taking Tesla's decline as an example) and also negatively impacts both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market.

What we need to pay special attention to in the future is the tariffs between the US and our 'Panda', which can have a significant effect on the market. The previous tariff negotiations could reach 125%, showing how tough they were and how difficult it is to negotiate. Therefore, we should focus on the situations announced in the future; if negotiations go well, the market may rise, but if negotiations go poorly, it could lead to unpredictable downturns! #美国加征关税 #比特币巨鲸动向 #马斯克计划成立美国党 #长期持有策略 #日内交易策略