On Monday, Trump published a letter to the leaders of 14 countries on the Truth Social platform, threatening to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The list includes major exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea, both of which will face a 25% tariff. The crypto market retreated across the board, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of 107429, and currently fluctuating around 108000.
In yesterday's sweet dream article (Four Major Bearish Factors! Why Bitcoin Didn't Crash? Don't Touch These Coins This Week! BONK Soared 400 Times?), it was mentioned: Bitcoin has opportunities for both shorting high and going long low. The upper pressure focuses on 109700 and 110500. Short positions should be entered around here. For those who have already shorted at 108500 or 109500, just hold on and target 108000, 107000, and 105000 below. Currently, Bitcoin has achieved the first target, and followers who joined in have made a profit of 166%. Those who have joined at this point can take profits and look for opportunities to enter at higher positions.
BTC
Currently, the market has been under pressure at 109700 for several days. The price is testing support downwards. The daily K-line Bollinger bands are all opening upwards, but the MACD bullish momentum is shrinking, and the KDJ has a dead cross moving down. The probability of the market making a new high is not large, so be cautious about chasing highs and mainly focus on short positions!
Today, pay attention to the gains and losses of the support below, 107300 and 106300. If it breaks below here, it will really go to 105000. If it goes lower, the bulls will really be unstable and start to move down.
Going long: If you want to go long today, participate near 107300 and 106300.
Short positions: Focus on upper resistance at 108700, 109700, and 110400. Participate in shorting at these rebound positions. Currently, 109700 has been tested multiple times and has pulled back.
Ethereum
Yesterday, Ethereum did not break the previous high and was blocked in the 2620 area. A secondary top divergence indicates a short position, targeting a rebound near 2506. The current trading thought for ETH is more inclined to form a bottom head-and-shoulders pattern, waiting for a break of the downtrend line and a pullback.
Today's 4-hour chart determines whether there is a bullish divergence. If there is a bullish divergence, go long, but main trends need to be re-evaluated. Ethereum's support below is at 2520 and 2475. If it holds here today, the market is likely to rebound again, continuing to oscillate. If it breaks below here, it will need to go down to 2435 and 2380.
Long positions: You can pay attention to the support situation at 2520 and 2475 to see if it can hold.
Short positions: Focus on upper resistance at 2585, 2615, and 2640. Choose to enter here for shorting.
In short, what Sweet Dream wants to say is that there is no foundation for a big rise in the current market, so don’t chase highs and sell lows!
The big beautiful bill reduces taxes -> financial pressure further increases -> so tariffs need to be raised to collect more money -> and tariffs have not been implemented -> time is needed to sort things out -> wait until after August when tariffs are all arranged -> financial surplus is available -> just in time for a rate cut in September -> by then, the fundamental loopholes will be filled -> then there will be a basis for a big rise -> for the next month or two, it will basically still be high-level oscillation -> so my strategy is all about shorting high, don’t chase highs and sell lows, and for long positions, wait at support levels.
Altcoin
Currently, the altcoin market sees a low-cap coin doubling every day, then harvesting and starting a downward trend from MYX, $VIC to now $FIS, explosive rise and fall. So who will be next?
$M has been soaring for four consecutive days, reasons for the surge
① The ecosystem has begun to have practical applications, with golden dogs appearing frequently. MXT has surged by x100 in recent days, attracting a lot of capital and institutional project parties.
② Staking profits explode: Long-term bullish $M holders are staking
③ The $700K $M reward pool launched in collaboration with KaitoAI incentivizes content creation and community activity, causing the popularity of $M to soar.
$M currently has a market value of $40.81 million, which is still very underestimated compared to others in the same track without practical applications. In the short term, it should not be a problem to see $50 million.
$PENGU unexpectedly fell, did the fund run?
PENG's lowest drop was 0.01426. Currently, the possibility of the fund running is almost zero.
① There is no inducement to increase the opponent's position. The fund's selling must require strong liquidity.
② The trading volume is only strong in certain areas, and compared to previous days, it is still very weak.
③ This round has risen to 0.0172. Will the fund sell at 0.015-0.016? If it is really selling, there is only one possibility - this is a water fund! But within a week since the end of June, the fund can rise from 0.009 to 0.017, which is obviously not in line.
On-chain
Pump: Pump unit price $0.004, raising $600 million, valuation $4 billion. After Gate launched the TGE page, it was deleted again. If the pump doesn’t go well, it might go online around the end of the month. At that time, there will definitely be many people to short, and it cannot be ruled out that there will be a wave of explosive shorts first. My short-term expectation is likely to be in the range of $6-8 billion, then it will continue to decline. Long-term, Pump is a perfect target for long-term shorts, with no opportunities at all. Don’t listen to any value analysis, it’s all nonsense!
NALA: $NALA ten times overnight, 300,000 issued in the internal group, waking up to 3 million in just 10 hours. The day before, it had just eaten $AP with a tenfold increase, and today it has eaten NALA's tenfold. The diamond hands on the Ethereum chain have a significant advantage.
① The Ethereum chain is not that easy. Once golden dogs appear, funds are more likely to concentrate. The SOL chain has many coins, making it difficult for funds to gather. Everyone wants to be the king, which makes it harder to produce large amounts of gold.
② The Ethereum chain is known as the noble chain. Once there is a trend, GAS fees will increase, which is equivalent to raising transaction taxes, forcing both large and small retail investors to raise their expectations and not easily sell, making it easier to form a stronger consensus.
③ As long as $ETH does not experience a significant drop, the on-chain golden dogs will not easily die.