Solana has the potential for a 20x price increase if it breaks through the $200 threshold according to the cup and handle model, but it currently faces downward pressure and is not ready to surge.
Although Solana reflects Bitcoin's trend regarding the technical model, on-chain data and the RSI both indicate that a strong growth period has not yet arrived, with declining trading volume and downward momentum still dominating the market.
MAIN CONTENT
The cup and handle model forecasts that Solana's price could reach $4,390 if it surpasses $200.
The number of active addresses and large investors in Solana has decreased, indicating weak market momentum.
The weekly chart and RSI reflect that downward pressure still dominates, indicating a correction phase.
What does the cup and handle model forecast for the future price of Solana?
Technical analysis expert Trader Tardigrade pointed out that Solana and Bitcoin are forming a cup and handle pattern on the monthly chart, with Bitcoin having broken out and Solana preparing to enter a strong growth phase.
Based on the depth of the model, the breakout target for Solana is $4,390, equivalent to a 20x increase if the price exceeds the $200 threshold. The launch event of the Solana Spot ETF by REX-Osprey on July 2 attracted $11.4 million in capital on July 3, facilitating this breakout.
The cup and handle model along with interest from ETFs could trigger a strong price surge for Solana if it breaks through the $200 zone.
Trader Tardigrade, technical analysis expert, 2025
Why hasn't Solana's hype 'burst' strongly yet?
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that the number of active addresses increased sharply from October to December 2024, corresponding to the price surge from $146 to $264. However, in the past six months, the number of active addresses has started to decline, reflecting a decrease in market participation momentum.
This situation resembles a crowded 'casino,' but most players have not made significant gains, or it is a frenzy of short-term opportunities for investors. The declining trend of active addresses also accompanies a sharp drop in trading volume since May 2025.
What does the activity of large investors indicate?
According to Glassnode, the number of large investors holding over 10,000 SOL increased rapidly during March-April 2024 when the price was at $140 and remained stable at about 5,100 investors in 2025. The further increase in large investors could be a positive sign for the future.
What do technical charts and relative strength index (RSI) indicate?
Weekly chart analysis from TradingView shows that the lowest price in December 2024 at $175 was breached at the beginning of 2025 and then became the resistance level in the May recovery. The RSI below 50 since February indicates significant selling pressure.
Although the RSI has fluctuated around the 50 mark for the past two months, bullish momentum has not been strong enough to push prices higher, accompanied by decreasing trading volume indicating that the market is in a correction state and lacks breakout momentum.
"Downward momentum still dominates the Solana market, but if it exceeds the $190 threshold on the weekly chart, the trend could shift positively and open up a new growth phase."
Cryptocurrency market analyst, 2025
How to track confirmation signals for a new trend of Solana?
You should observe the growth in the number of active addresses, positive movements from large investors, and increasing trading volume. Exceeding $190 - $200 with strong buying momentum will be a confirmation signal for the next increase.
Comparison table of the cup and handle model between Bitcoin and Solana
Criteria Bitcoin (BTC) Solana (SOL) Cup and handle model has broken (a few months ago) Cup and handle preparing to break Price target $230,000 $4,390 (20x increase) Supporting event Occurred earlier Launch of Solana Spot ETF, capital inflow of $11.4 million Current market sentiment Positive Correction, not enough breakout momentum
Frequently asked questions about Solana's price trend
1. Is the cup and handle model really reliable for Solana? Yes, this model is confirmed by Trader Tardigrade on the monthly chart. However, clear breakout signals are needed for confirmation. 2. How does the Solana Spot ETF affect SOL prices? The ETP attracted $11.4 million in capital at the beginning of July 2025, creating momentum for the price to surpass the important $200 threshold. 3. What does the RSI indicate about the current SOL trend? An RSI below 50 indicates that downward pressure still dominates, but signs of weakening are emerging. 4. What does the number of active addresses indicate about the investment community? A declining number indicates a weakening in market participation and upward momentum. 5. When should we expect Solana to enter a new growth cycle? When the price exceeds $190 with significant trading volume, the uptrend signal will be reinforced.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-230-000-usd-solana-pha-dinh/
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