Last night, Trump started waving the tariff stick again, and the market began to be shrouded in panic! Bitcoin dropped to 107500, Ethereum also fell, with a total of 78,751 people globally being liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $170 million.
BTC
Bitcoin is fluctuating and moving lower, with short-term rebounds unable to break through the upper resistance zone. The daily K-line closed with a typical 'bearish engulfing' pattern, the trend is weak, and a bearish structure is also evident in the 2-day and 3-day cycles. The MACD is nearing a key point for directional choice. If there is no major positive stimulus, bulls may struggle to hold the situation, and the risk of breaking down is increasing.
Currently, the support and resistance zones are becoming increasingly clear, with a focus on the support around 107300—106300. If this area is broken, it may trigger an accelerated downward 'waterfall' drop. In terms of strategy, if it breaks down, you can try to short; if it stabilizes at the support zone, you can look for opportunities to buy low and speculate on a rebound. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in trading volume and market strength signals.
Best bottom fishing area: If calculated from yesterday's rebound high of $109700, a downward adjustment of about $5000 places the key support level around 104800. This position corresponds not only to the 56-day moving average of the daily line but also to the 28-day moving average of the 2-day line, and it is also an important area of concentrated chips near $104500. If you have no short positions and plan to lay out long positions, you can focus on this area as a potential bottom fishing opportunity.
Short position take-profit strategy: If entering short positions at three different price levels of 110300, 109500, and 108500, you can take profits in batches at the lower levels of 106800, 106100, and 105800, arranging your positions based on long, medium, and short-term strategies.
Ethereum
ETH has re-broken the $2500 mark, establishing liquidity for the bullish trend line, and now is the time to prepare for harvesting. Especially in the on-chain data of the past 7 days in the 2400-2430 range, bulls have accumulated nearly 3 billion in liquidations, while above, bears have nearly 2.4-2.7 billion in liquidations in the 2670-2710 range.
Operation strategy:
Short position ideas: Long-term short positions can temporarily wait and look for clearer entry signals; medium-term short positions can be attempted in the 2580-2600 range, setting a stop loss of $30-40 to control risk; for short-term shorts, focus on whether the 2550 level effectively breaks down; if confirmed lost and cannot recover, you can consider entering.
Long position ideas: If the market experiences a rapid decline, look for short-term rebound opportunities in the 2430-2450 range, with stop loss controlled within a reasonable range. Focus on rebound targets in the 2460-2480 range, primarily with light positions and quick trades.
Currently, the U.S. government's wallet address transferred 86 Ether to Coinbase Prime 10 hours ago; these 86 Ether were seized by the U.S. FBI from the phishing scammer Chase Senecal in 2022; it is unclear why the U.S. government is now transferring this relatively small amount of Ether to Coinbase Prime; the U.S. government wallet still holds 60,000 Ether, so it is worth monitoring whether there will be further transfers.
Altcoin
Apart from BONK performing decently, other projects are basically without highlights, and the market is obviously lacking participation enthusiasm. Most targets are still on the old path of 'wild speculation and crashing', the market rhythm is chaotic, and trading interest cannot be raised.
A certain platform has started 'setting the stage', and the familiar script is being played out again:
VIC: Backed by DWF investments and market makers, but the market response has been tepid, with a cold atmosphere.
FIS: The 'old junk' from the last cycle relies on low market cap to hype concepts, with the 'new contract group' making a comeback. Remember the collective guessing of who would launch contracts by the end of 2024? The traces of market control are still evident.
MBOX: Once a key project promoted by the platform, now being pulled back to the stage, with familiar intermediaries, everyone is tacitly aware.
ALPINE: One of the representatives of the fan currency sector, behind the rise and fall, who is in control of the market, those who understand will understand.
1000000BOB: The 'Intern Project' returns, the trading logic is the same, taking turns to speculate, everyone understands who is being cut.
On-chain
This month on-chain, without unexpected events, will be the showdown between WLFI and PUMP, and it seems PUMP wants to warm up first. Currently, PUMP's public offering scale is 4 billion, and the valuation is obviously high. It is highly likely just a small profit; there is a small probability that it becomes the VC's backer. I am looking forward to the arrival of WLFI, perhaps Trump's call for investment will force WLFI into a meme, far away from a reasonable valuation range.
Old kings exit, new kings ascend. At present, it seems that Bonk is the platform with the most potential to activate funds. Recently, it is evident that the number of people participating in Pump projects is decreasing, and the core issue still lies in liquidity.
As the issuance of $WLFI approaches, the 'money' in the market will further be diluted and diverted, and overall liquidity will be impacted to some extent. Although logically, Pump series projects essentially belong to long-term bearish targets, there is still a possibility of being speculated by funds in the short term, so everyone should not take it lightly and must respond flexibly.