Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around 110,000 dollars, feeling like a volcano ready to erupt at any moment. I am your old Luo, a tough guy who stubbornly held onto shorts in July.
I've held my BTC short for almost ten days, I've been trapped and lost in between, but I still didn't run, why? I smell a big market movement coming! The new altcoins in my hands have also basically made short positions.
How to read the market? What tricks is the main force playing?
Let's talk about the market first, BTC's recent trend is a bit like a roller coaster, on July 5, it stepped down to 107,000 dollars, then bounced back. This isn't just random fluctuations, that pullback clearly indicates that the main force is 'taking a bath'—washing out the retail investors who chased high, and conveniently adjusting its position. From the K-line perspective, the 4-hour level is now in horizontal shock, and the 110,000 mark has been touched several times, each time rebounding like hitting a wall. What does that indicate? There are quite a few stop-loss orders piled up above 110,000, and the main force is probably already satisfied and thinking about the next step.
Just look at the liquidation heat map, the short liquidation points are concentrated between 110,000 and 120,000, extending as far as 130,000; where are the long liquidation points? Below 103,000, 105,000, and 97,000 these small points are particularly dense. What does that mean? If BTC surges up, it might sweep up to 120,000 or even 130,000 in one go; if it crashes down, the longs around 100,000 will be trembling. Do you think the main force will deliberately pull it up before smashing it down? Anyway, from what I see, the 'wall' at 110,000 isn't so easy to break, it might be a trap set by the main force.
Why am I stubbornly holding onto my shorts?
Why am I so bullish on shorts? The reason is simple, the main force's actions this time are too 'sneaky'. 110,000 has been touched repeatedly, and liquidity (which means stop-loss orders) is almost drained. The main force might deliberately pull it to around 110,000 to entice bulls to enter, then reverse and smash down, directly sweeping the long liquidation points from 103,000 to 97,000, and conveniently reclaiming costs. Retail investors currently have the upper hand in shorts (the long-short ratio is about 0.6), but large investors and the main force are leaning towards long, attracting retail investors to follow suit, and then hitting hard again. My short position is buried around 109,000.
The opening of the U.S. stock market and the 'bomb' of tariffs.
Aside from the market, we also need to keep an eye on the news. Tonight (July 8), the U.S. stock market opens, and due to the Independence Day holiday, funds have been pent up for several days and might flood in all at once. 'Tariffs to be raised again on July 9', there isn't any concrete news yet, it might just be market speculation. However, after Trump took office in 2025, the trade protection rhetoric has indeed become louder, and tariffs will inevitably blow up sooner or later. If the U.S. stock market catches wind of something early tonight, like poor economic data or rising tariff expectations, it’s likely to shake, and BTC will probably follow suit. That's why I say, hold onto your shorts, betting on this wave of macro risks.
How to catch the points? Don't panic on either side.
Brothers who want to go long: the support level at 107,000 is pretty solid, consider entering if it pulls back to 105,000 or 103,000, take it steady, don’t go all in at once.
The short camp: I opened a short position at 109,000.
Set your stop-loss, run if it hits 112,000, don’t hold on stubbornly.
If BTC hits 120,000-130,000, consider re-entering.
