Last night, Trump once again started waving the tariff stick, and the market is once again shrouded in panic! Bitcoin dropped to 107500, Ethereum fell sharply, with a total of 78,751 people liquidated globally, totaling $170 million in liquidation.
Bitcoin is experiencing a downward fluctuation, with a short-term rebound that failed to break through the resistance zone. The daily K-line shape for Bitcoin in the morning is very poor, showing a typical bearish engulfing pattern. Additionally, bearish patterns have appeared in the two-day and three-day levels. The MACD has reached a decision phase; if there are no significant positive factors to sustain it, a breakdown is inevitable. Currently, there are clear upper and lower resistance levels, so closely monitor the support range around 107300–106300. If it breaks down, it will be a waterfall decline, leading to short-selling, and if it stops falling, consider going long.
Best bottom-buying position: Calculating from yesterday's highest rebound point of 109700, it's at least a drop of $5000. The important position is around 104800, which is also the 56-day moving average support on the daily line and the 28-day moving average support on the two-day line, as well as the densely packed range around 104500. If you don’t have a short position and want to buy the dip, focus on this position. Short position take-profit levels are at 110300-109500-108500; for those entering long, medium, and short positions, take profit in batches at 106800-106100-105800. Ethereum ETH has re-broken the $2500 barrier and has already fostered bullish trend line liquidity; the next step is to prepare for harvesting. Notably, the on-chain data shows close to $3 billion in liquidation for bulls in the 2400-2430 range, while bears have close to $2.4-2.7 billion in liquidation in the 2670-2710 range.
Strategy: Short Position: For long shorts, you can wait and see, while for medium shorts, consider entering at 2580-2600 with a stop loss of $30-40. For short positions, first observe whether 2550 confirms a breakdown before considering. Long Position: Consider a rebound in the 2430-2450 range after a drop of $80-100, and pay attention to the 2460-2480 range for short-term rebounds, with a proper stop loss. Currently, the U.S. government wallet address transferred 86 ETH to Coinbase Prime 10 hours ago; these 86 ETH were seized by the FBI from phishing scammer Chase Senecal in 2022. It's unclear why the U.S. government is transferring this relatively small amount of ETH to Coinbase Prime. The government wallet still holds 60,000 ETH, so keep an eye on whether further transfers will follow.
Apart from Bonk, there has been basically no progress in altcoins. Some tokens are being wildly pumped and dumped by certain manipulators, and there is really no incentive to participate; a certain platform is once again setting the stage to perform!
1. VIC: DWF investor, market maker.
2. FIS: Last round's junk, old coins with low market value, 'the new group of contracts launched (thinking back to late 2024, when everyone speculated that a certain low market value project would go live with contracts),' the controlling party is well known.
3. MBOX: A project that a certain platform once strongly supported, and the controlling party is well known.
4. ALPINE: Representing fan coins, the controlling party is well known.
5. 1,000,000 BOB: Internship project, the controlling party is well known.
On-chain
On-chain, this month will likely see a showdown between WLFI and PUMP, and it seems PUMP wants to take the lead in warming up. Currently, the public offering size of PUMP is 4 billion, and the valuation is significantly high. There’s a high probability it’s just small gains; and a low probability it becomes the VC's bag holder. I am looking forward to the arrival of WLFI; perhaps Trump’s call for investment will forcibly turn WLFI into a meme, distancing it from reasonable valuation ranges.
The old king has fallen, and the new king is born. Currently, Bonk is the most likely new platform to attract active funds. Recently, it’s obvious that fewer people are playing with Pump. Ultimately, it’s still a liquidity issue. Once $WLFI is launched, the 'money' in the market will be even more dispersed. With the issuance of Pump wlfi tokens, the market's liquidity will be affected, so everyone must pay attention. Although it’s said that pumps are long-term shorting targets, short-term speculation can’t be ruled out.
