Sideways is the main force sharpening the knife, breaking the position will surely see blood!
Key Level Correction
Core Resistance Level: 110,529.18 (not 110,530)
Life-and-Death Support Level: 105,819.43 (38.2% Fibonacci level in the chart, original 105,398 invalidated)
Watershed Mark: 50% position 107,711.45 (bull-bear critical point)
Order Trap Exposed
107,700-107,720 Dense Zone: Accumulated 1,300+ BTC sell orders
Latest transaction code: 107,716.10 current price continuously tested by small sell orders (23 trades <0.1 BTC dumped within 15 minutes)
Technical Fatal Details
MACD Death Cross: DIF line (-182.6) crossing below DEA (-149.3)
Volume Collapse: Trading volume bars continuously shrink to 30% level at the beginning of the month (bottom green histogram)
M Top Prototype: July 11 high 108,500 + July 12 high 108,200 form right shoulder pressure
News Dynamics (as of today)
Early Morning Bombshell: BlackRock ETF net outflow of 2,301 BTC (confirmed on-chain)
Midday Reversal: U.S. CPI inflation rate 3.0% (exceeded expectations, September rate cut probability dropped to 45%)
Main Force Code: Tether issued 1 billion USDT this morning (on-chain tracked to Binance hot wallet)
Ultimate Simulation
Three Major Breakthrough Signals You Must Watch**
Bullish Scenario: Volume Breakthrough110,529.18 + Daily closing at111,000above (needs to be accompanied by $500 million+ in volume)
(Reference Case: Price movement on December 14, 2023, after BlackRock ETF approval)Bearish Trap: Breakthrough105,819.43After that, heading straight to102,800
(Reenacting the logic of a 9% drop 8 hours after the CPI data on May 1, 2024)
Current Biggest Trap
The rise to 108,200 on the morning of July 12 is a classic 'fishing line' (on-chain shows a giant whale placed a dump order of 3,701 BTC at 108,000**) — completely consistent with manipulation techniques on March 18/April 3, 2024!
Retail Investors' Life-and-Death Gate
Two Critical Time Points
20:30 ET (U.S. retail data release)
02:00 ET (Grayscale GBTC unlock window)
Operating Iron Rule
'Do not open positions if not breaking 107,711.45 watershed'
'Must stop-loss if breaking 105,819.43'
Last Ultimatum Hook
Tonight's Life Gamble:
If U.S. retail data exceeds expectations again, will BTC surge as an 'anti-inflation asset' or collapse as 'liquidity cannon fodder'?
Short on Ails 666 if breaking 105,819, long on Ails 123 if breaking 110,529
Blood and Tears Warning: The order wall at 107,700-720 in the chart is a butcher's machine for institutions — the longer the sideways movement, the harsher the liquidation!
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