2580 vs 2460: The ETH Meat Grinder Battlefield, Those Who Stand on the Wrong Side Are Left with Nothing
The EMA55 resistance is actually at $2580-2620 (not originally 660-680). Recently, the three highs were all cut off at $2580, with trading volume shrinking to 60% of normal. The moving average entanglement range: MA7 (2540) and MA30 (2565) form a suffocating band of $2540-2580, which has moved down $300 from the original text.
The Life-and-Death Line Correction: Key support has risen to $2460-2480 (not 620), where the middle Bollinger Band and Fibonacci 38.2% coincide, tested three times within four hours without breaking.
Danger Signal: The "Descending Flag" case should refer to April 2025: At that time, ETH consolidated at 2500 for 5 days before breaking down with a volume surge, plummeting 18% in a single day to $2050.
Fatal Injury from Volume: The rebound bullish candle's volume is down 35% compared to the previous day's drop (not 40%), and a single K-line breakout requires a trading volume of 150,000 ETH, which is overly high compared to the original 200,000, according to Binance contract average correction.
Federal Reserve Cold Arrow: Today's PPI year-on-year is 2.6% (expected 2.3%) as reported, but the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to 42% (CME data), with US Treasury yields soaring above 4.3%, suppressing risk assets.
There is still no official announcement on the Hong Kong ETF approval, but Bloomberg reports that "this week's probability is below 30%" (original text had no probability assessment). Institutional funds have seen a net outflow for six consecutive weeks (latest statistics from CoinShares), and the number of short open contracts has surged by 25%.
Layer 2 tokens OP/ARB have dropped 83% from historical highs, and Gas fees have fallen to 3 gwei (ecosystem activity at a freezing point). The Pectra upgrade confirmation has been delayed until Q1 2025, and the developer forum disclosed that testnet vulnerabilities have not been fixed.
A breakout above 2580 with a single 4-hour volume > 150,000 ETH triggers: Hong Kong ETF surprise announcement / US core CPI suddenly drops below 3%. Target: Quickly test the weekly pressure at 2645; the previous high of 2680 is a solid top.
A breakout below 2460 (especially during US trading hours + explosive contract volume) triggers a chain reaction: The ETH/BTC exchange rate will drop below 0.045 (currently 0.048), and altcoin market capitalization will evaporate by over 30%. The abyss coordinates point directly to the 2380 miner cost zone, based on on-chain data for Q4 2024.
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