This week's market, despite some marginal signs of recovery in ETF and stablecoin funds, still lacks overall momentum. In the absence of clear breakthroughs in funding and structural repair signals, the market's short-term trend remains cautious.
The Crypto Market is Ever-Changing
1. Continuous Disturbance in the Macro Situation: Recently, amid geopolitical turmoil and macroeconomic policy uncertainties, market volatility has significantly increased. Investor risk appetite has rapidly cooled, and funding entering the market has become particularly cautious. Although ETF and stablecoin funds have shown slight signs of recovery, they are insufficient to support a strong market trend, and the market is still waiting for key signals in the short term.
2. Federal Reserve Meeting Releases Neutral Signal: The Federal Reserve's meeting maintains the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, but is constrained by factors such as tariffs, inflation adjustments, and economic downgrades, making the rate cut path quite conservative. Oil price fluctuations, tariff implementations, and low base effects are impacting inflation trends, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to immediately begin its rate-cut journey. It is predicted that by mid-August, the impacts of tariffs and oil price trends will become clear, with September potentially becoming the first rate cut node, and core inflation is expected to rise to 3.0% by the end of the year.
Major Breakthroughs in Macroeconomics
The formal signing of Trump's 'Big and Beautiful' bill (OBBBA) is undoubtedly a heavyweight bombshell in the macroeconomic field.
1. Raising the Debt Ceiling Releases Massive Liquidity: This bill raises the federal debt ceiling from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion, unlocking $5 trillion of new borrowing space for the U.S. government and successfully alleviating short-term default risks. Meanwhile, funds in the Treasury General Account (TGA) are released, with the current TGA balance at about $372.2 billion, nearing a one-year low. After the bill's implementation, the Treasury is expected to replace existing debt with newly issued bonds, releasing a substantial amount of cash. During July to September, the market is expected to absorb more than $1 trillion in Treasury supply. Additionally, government spending is set to increase significantly, with new debt financing focusing on defense, infrastructure, and tax cuts, directly injecting U.S. dollar liquidity into the market.
2. Tax Cut Policies Stimulate Economic Vitality: Over the next decade, the tax cuts will amount to $4 trillion, with the corporate tax rate permanently reduced to 21%, and the scope of equipment investment tax deductions further expanded. The return of manufacturing is a significant positive, such as the tax credit ratio for chip factories increasing to 35%, which is expected to improve corporate cash flow. Companies may use the additional funds for stock buybacks or increase investments, further driving market development.
Currently, investors should closely monitor the pace of liquidity release, including the speed of U.S. Treasury issuance and the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. At the same time, the risk of policy spillover cannot be overlooked, such as G7 trade negotiations and U.S.-China tariff talks in August. In the feast of massive liquidity, it is recommended to prioritize sectors with clear benefits such as military, energy, and defensive consumption, while also allocating gold to hedge against long-term uncertainty.
Market Overview Precise Insights
1. FMG RWA and AI Index Trend Analysis: In the second half of June 2025, among the numerous indices monitored by FMG, the RWA Index achieved a monthly return increase of around 6.11% due to its continuous upward trend. Behind this increase is the late arrival of altcoin season, with investment opportunities in Web 3 being relatively scarce and overly concentrated in BTC and stablecoins. Off-exchange funds have begun to refocus on DeFi, asset management, and strategy sectors. However, the risk of a single Web 3 market's DeFi is relatively high, thus products anchored to real-world assets with DeFi attributes are becoming new favorites in the market.
2. Interpretation of Crypto Market Data: As of June 30, 2025, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies steadily climbed to $3.33 trillion, showing continuous growth compared to $3.12 trillion in the second half of May. The BTC dominance index reached 64% as of June 30, showing a continuous upward trend. The altcoin season index reached 24 as of June 30, up from 25 in early May, suggesting that opportunities in the altcoin market are gradually increasing.
3. Judging the Impact of CPI and Other Data on the Market: The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a balance sheet reduction scale keeping U.S. Treasuries at $5 billion per month and MBS at $35 billion per month. The wording of the statement was adjusted, changing the uncertainty in the economic outlook from 'further increased' to 'somewhat diminished but still high,' and removing references to 'the risk of rising unemployment and inflation,' reflecting that the impact of Trump's tariffs has been preliminarily incorporated into decision-making considerations. The economy is steadily expanding, with a stable job market, but inflation uncertainty remains a key focus of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate (employment and inflation). The rate guidance remains cautious, emphasizing that the magnitude and timing of rate cuts will be based on prudent assessment, suggesting that the rate-cut process will be relatively slow.
Hot Market News Express
1. The First U.S. Staking Cryptocurrency ETF is Coming, Solana Price Rises: According to Cointelegraph, the first U.S. staking cryptocurrency ETF will launch on Wednesday, allowing investors to hold Solana (SOL) and earn rewards through staking. REX Shares has confirmed that the fund is about to be launched. The REX-Osprey fund will provide investors with SOL spot and staking income, likely boosting institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. The SEC has also given positive feedback on its C-Corp structure. Following this news, Solana's price rose by 6% after the announcement, climbing to about $158, with a cumulative increase of over 12% in the past seven days. Currently, Solana's market capitalization has reached $83.5 billion, firmly holding the sixth-largest cryptocurrency position. Analysts predict that the approval of the Solana ETF may mark the beginning of the 'altcoin summer,' while Solana also performs strongly in the decentralized exchange market, with trading volumes surpassing Ethereum.
2. Ark Invest Sells Off Coinbase Stock in Large Volume: Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, sold about $43.8 million worth of Coinbase shares on Monday, totaling 124,892 shares. Nevertheless, Coinbase (COIN) closed down only 0.83% at $350.49 on Monday, still close to the historical highest closing price of $375.07 set last Thursday. In the past month, Coinbase's stock price has surged by 42.12%, with a cumulative increase of 41.16% year-to-date.
3. Robinhood Teams Up with Arbitrum to Strongly Enter the Tokenized Stock Field: On the evening of June 30, at a press conference in Cannes, France, Robinhood announced that it will officially launch U.S. stock tokenization trading services in the EU, currently supporting over 200 U.S. stock assets for on-chain trading 24 hours a day, five days a week, including tokens for OpenAI and SpaceX, with plans to expand to thousands of tokenized stocks by the end of 2025. Currently, Robinhood EU is offering free tokens to the first batch of eligible private company stocks. Eligible Robinhood EU users can claim tokens in the app before July 7. This product only charges a 0.1% foreign exchange conversion fee, aimed at reducing the high intermediary costs for European investors accessing the U.S. market. In the future, users will be able to achieve self-custody of tokenized stocks and ETFs through Robinhood's crypto wallet while also having the option for a simplified operating experience without managing private keys, providing investors with a more convenient and efficient trading method.
Important Dynamics in Regulatory Environment
1. Germany's Largest Banking Group Sparkassen to Enter Cryptocurrency Trading Services: Germany's largest banking group Sparkassen has announced plans to offer cryptocurrency trading services to retail investors, covering Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). This service is expected to officially launch in the summer of 2026. This significant decision comes three years after its board previously rejected such services due to volatility and risk issues. It is reported that Sparkassen's wholly-owned subsidiary Dekabank will be fully responsible for managing its cryptocurrency services. Previously, Sparkassen executives had a critical stance on cryptocurrencies, even calling them 'highly speculative,' but this shift undoubtedly injects new vitality into the cryptocurrency market.
2. Nasdaq-listed Company LGHL Significantly Increases Cryptocurrency Assets: According to PRNewswire, after completing its first purchase of HYPE tokens, Nasdaq-listed Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) has continued to increase its holdings, investing approximately $5 million in HYPE, SOL, and SUI to expand its Layer-1 cryptocurrency asset reserves. Additionally, the company has disclosed that it is actively evaluating more ways to participate in these ecosystems, including validator operations, governance participation, and establishing deep partnerships with ecosystem partners, demonstrating significant interest and strategic layout in the cryptocurrency field.
