The economists surveyed by the Central Bank reduced the inflation projection for 2025 from 5.20% to 5.18% in this Monday's Focus Bulletin.

For 2026 and 2027, the projections were kept at 4.50% and 4.00%, respectively. For 2028, economists reduced inflation from 3.83% to 3.83%.

Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the estimates for this year have increased from 2.21% to 2.23% in this Focus, while for 2026, adjusted from 1.87% to 1.86%. For 2027 and 2028, the expected growth for the country is 2% and 2%, respectively.

The projections for the dollar indicate an exchange rate around R$ 5.70 and R$ 5.75 in 2025 and 2026, respectively. For 2027 and 2028, the bets are R$ 5.75 and R$ 5.80.

As for the Selic estimates, economists maintained their estimates at 15%. For 2026 and the following two years, the prospects for the basic interest rate are 12.50%, 10.50%, and 10%.

Check the projections of the Focus Report this Monday

Inflation

  • 2025: from 5.20% to 5.18%

  • 2026: remains at 4.50%

  • 2027: remains at 4.00%

  • 2028: from 3.83% to 3.80%

GDP

  • 2025: from 2.21% to 2.23%

  • 2026: from 1.87% to 1.86%

  • 2027: remains at 2.00%

  • 2028: remains at 2.00%

Selic

  • 2025: remains at 15%

  • 2026: remains at 12.50%

  • 2027: remains at 10.50%

  • 2028: remains at 10.00%

Dollar

  • 2025: from R$ 5.72 to R$ 5.70

  • 2026: from R$ 5.79 to R$ 5.75

  • 2027: remains at R$ 5.75

  • 2028: remains at R$ 5.80