Bitcoin ($BTC ) may be on the verge of its next major breakthrough, as institutional investment has rebounded to levels that previously triggered rapid price increases.
According to new analysis from Ecoinometrics, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past 30 days is close to 50,000 BTC — a threshold that has historically signaled the onset of strong upward trends.
The report highlights the strong correlation between ETF inflows and the price trends of leading digital assets. When inflows exceed 50,000 BTC, historical data shows that Bitcoin prices tend to rise significantly, as observed in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025. During these periods, Bitcoin rapidly climbed to new highs, primarily driven by institutional demand reflected in the purchases of spot ETFs.
Ecoinometrics' model for the movement of exchange-traded funds relative to current prices shows a potential target of $117,000 if inflows continue to grow. This model uses past inflow growth to assess fair value, while current dynamics suggest that BTC may soon return to high price ranges historically associated with strong capital accumulation.
The attached chart displays colored bars corresponding to the BTC price range ($60,000 – $110,000) and compares it with the 30-day fund flow trajectory. During periods of high inflow — particularly those exceeding 50,000 BTC — prices have consistently risen, entering warmer color regions on the chart.
ETF inflows rose again in July, indicating that despite recent consolidation, institutional confidence remains strong. The recovery of this fund inflow dynamic supports the $117,000 forecast and implies that Bitcoin may soon enter the next stage of its breakout — provided that the inflow pattern can be sustained.
As fund inflows are a key indicator of institutional demand, all eyes are on whether there will be a decisive breakout above the 50,000 BTC level. If this occurs, the path for Bitcoin to reach six figures over the coming months may become increasingly likely.
