A fatal blow from the news front! The 'Musk Effect' is rapidly fading, and his companies have recently not released any positive signals for Dogecoin.

I. Technical Analysis: The Battle for the Lifeline at 0.16909, Breaking It Will Open the Crash Channel

  1. Bollinger Bands are roaring, bears control the lower band
    Current price 0.16966 closely follows the Bollinger lower band at 0.165, the band continues to widen, indicating that the downward momentum is not exhausted. If the one-hour candlestick's body breaks below0.16909 watershed, it will trigger the technical 'nuclear button':

    First target 0.16729

    Ultimate crash area 0.164

    Extreme case retracing previous low 0.161

  2. MACD death cross, chilling cold light, strong selling momentum
    MACD dual-line death cross, red momentum bars continue to expand, confirming bear dominance. Historical data shows that rebounds under this pattern are all opportunities to escape unless there isGolden cross + green bars shrink, otherwise the trend is hard to reverse.

The only lifeline for bulls to counterattack: The one-hour candlestick must increase volume to reclaim 0.17215 and break through the previous high + suppress the Bollinger middle band, otherwise any rebound is a trap to lure longs.

II. News Front: The Musk Halo Fades, Trump and ETF Become New Variables

  1. Deadly Negative News: The Musk Effect's 'Avalanche' Withdrawal
    This round of risehas no public endorsement from Musk, nor institutional funding support, driven purely by retail sentiment. His political energy has shifted to the establishment of the 'American Party', reducing the focus on DOGE to freezing point.

  2. Potential Positive News: Trump's Crypto Policy and ETF Foreshadowing

    • Although Trump's crypto reserve plan does not directly name DOGE, if Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others receive policy benefits, market sentiment warming will lead to MEME coins rising together.

    • If Grayscale and Bitwise's application for DOGE ETF is approved, it will open the door for institutional entry. Currently, there are over 6.1 million DOGE holders, and payment scenarios continue to expand.

III. Market Forecast: Two Scenarios and Operational Strategies

Scenario Trigger Conditions Target Probability Plummeting Mode closes at 0.16909 below 0.164 - 0.16165% a desperate reversal volume breaks through 0.172150.175 - 0.17735%

Operational Iron Rule:

Bears: If it breaks below 0.16909, lightly short, stop loss at 0.171, target 0.167

Bulls: Stabilize at 0.17215 to chase long, stop loss at 0.169, target 0.175

IV. Ultimate Warning: Three Major Death Signals Every Retail Investor Must Watch

  1. KDJ death cross + overbought: Huge short-term pullback pressure

  2. On-chain profit-taking surges: Dormant wallets waking up to sell pressure, NLP indicators reach monthly peak

  3. 'DOGE Killer' funds diversion: New MEME coins like $LILPEPE have raised over 3 million in presale, retail attention shifts

$DOGE

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