News Brings a Fatal Blow! The "Musk Effect" is Rapidly Fading, His Companies Haven't Released Any Positive Signals for Dogecoin Recently. Meanwhile, On-chain Data Shows Whales are Quietly Reducing Holdings, Indicating Clear Signs of Fund Withdrawal.

I. Technical Analysis: Lifeline 0.16909 Battle, Breaking Will Open Plunge Channel

  1. Bollinger Bands Widening, Bears Control the Lower Band
    Current Price 0.16966 Close to Bollinger Lower Band 0.165, Widening Bands Indicate Downward Momentum Not Exhausted. If the 1-Hour K-Line Entity Breaks0.16909 Watershed, It Will Trigger the Technical "Nuclear Button":

    • First Target 0.16729

    • Ultimate Sell-off Zone 0.164

    • Extreme Case Pullback to Previous Low 0.161

  2. MACD Death Cross Cold Light, Strong Selling Momentum
    MACD Double Line Death Cross, Red Momentum Bars Continuing to Expand, Confirming Bearish Dominance. Historical Data Shows Rebounds in This Pattern are All Escape Opportunities, Unless There isGolden Cross + Green Bar Contraction, Otherwise the Trend is Hard to Reverse.

  3. Liquidation Powder Keg: $320 Million Long Positions Buried Below 0.167
    On-chain Monitoring Shows,Intensive Long Position Staking in the 0.167-0.164 Range, If Price Breaks Below 0.16909, It Will Trigger a Chain Liquidation:

    • 0.16729: $110 Million Forced Liquidation

    • 0.16500: $180 Million Liquidation

The Only Lifeline for Bulls: The 1-Hour K-Line Must Recover 0.17215 with Volume to Break Previous High + Suppress Bollinger Mid-Band, Otherwise Any Bounce is a Trap for Bulls.

II. News: Musk's Halo Fades, Trump and ETF Become New Variables

  1. Fatal Bearish News: Musk Effect "Avalanche" Retreat
    This Round of IncreaseLacks Musk's Public Endorsement, and No Institutional Support, Purely Driven by Retail Sentiment. His Political Energy Shifts to Establishing the "American Party", Bringing DOGE's Attention to Freezing Point.

  2. Potential Positive: Trump’s Crypto Policy and ETF Foreshadowing

    • Although Trump's Crypto Reserve Plan Does Not Directly Name DOGE, If Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Others Receive Positive Policy, Market Sentiment Recovery Will Drive MEME Coins to Rise.

    • If Grayscale and Bitwise's DOGE ETF Applications Pass, It Will Open the Door for Institutional Entry; Currently, Over 6.1 Million Holders of DOGE, Payment Scenarios Continue to Expand.

III. Future Market Forecast: Two Scenarios and Operational Strategies

Scenario Trigger Conditions Target Probability Plunge Mode 1-Hour Close Below 0.16909 Down to 0.164 - 0.16165% Last-Ditch Reversal Volume Breakthrough 0.172150.175 - 0.17735%

Operational Iron Rule:

Bears: Short Lightly Below 0.16909, Stop Loss 0.171, Target 0.167

Bulls: Stabilize Above 0.17215 to Go Long, Stop Loss 0.169, Target 0.175

IV. Ultimate Warning: Retail Investors Must Watch for Three Major Death Signals

  1. KDJ Death Cross + Overbought: Huge Short-term Pullback Pressure

  2. On-chain Profit-Taking Surge: Dormant Wallets Awakening Selling Pressure, NLP Indicator Reaches Monthly Peak

  3. "DOGE Killer" Fund Diversion: New MEME Coins like $LILPEPE Raise Over $3 Million in Presale, Retail Attention Shifts

$DOGE

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