Here’s the latest on Trump’s tariff policies as of early July 2025:

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⚖️ Current Policy Status (July 2025)

90‑day “Liberation Day” tariff pause ending July 9: Trump initially delayed his steepest tariffs in April, but the pause expires Wednesday. He’s sending letters to about 12–15 countries this week, warning them that tariffs will go up if deals aren't done .

New deadline: tariffs effective August 1: Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed that higher tariffs are set to kick in August 1, though Trump may extend deadlines for “good‑faith” negotiators .

Extra duties on BRICS nations: Trump announced an additional 10 % tariff for countries aligned with “anti‑American” BRICS members .

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🔍 Scope & Reach

Base tariffs: A 10 % baseline applies to most countries.

Sector-specific:

Steel and aluminum: 50 %

Autos: 25 %

Electronics, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, etc., are under review or added .

Legal battles: Courts have temporarily blocked some “Liberation Day” tariffs, but injunctions are stayed on appeal, so the measures remain active for now .

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📉 Economic Impact

On U.S. consumers & businesses:

JPMorgan estimates the tariffs could cost U.S. employers $82.3 billion, largely borne by U.S. companies—not foreign exporters .

Yale estimates the average family will pay ~$4,700 annually, particularly hurt by spikes in apparel (+64%) and auto prices .

Macro effects:

CBO: deficits cut by $2.8 trillion over 10 years, but raises inflation by ~0.4 pp and marginally slows GDP .

Penn‑Wharton: GDP down ~6%, wages ~5% long-term; household loses ~$22 k over lifetime .

OECD downgraded U.S. growth to ~1.6% in 2025–26, grasping that tariffs and supply chain shock hamper growth .

Corporate & market effects:

CFO surveys: ~40% of firms are already passing costs to consumers; investments are delayed or canceled .

Goldman Sachs notes firms are absorbing 30% of tariff costs, pressuring margins; Q2 earnings (starting July 15) will be telling .

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🌐 Global Supply Chain & Trade Shifts

Companies are relocating supply chains out of China to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Europe; McKinsey sees Europe gaining major ground in U.S. imports .

U.S. manufacturing remains sluggish: ISM index is at 49.0 (contraction), marking the fourth month in a row .

Auto sales dipped sharply in June due to pre‑tariff buying; prices could rise $2k–10k per vehicle by year-end .

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📅 What’s Next?

July 9: Deadline for tariff pause ends. Deals or letters will be issued that day or earlier .

August 1: Higher tariffs take effect unless extended on a case-by-case basis .

Trade deals in progress: Governments—including UK, Canada, India, South Korea, Vietnam—are racing to secure agreements to avoid higher tariffs .

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✍️ Bottom Line

Trump’s tariff regime has entered a high-stakes phase with looming deadlines. While countries are scrambling to negotiate, U.S. businesses and consumers are already feeling the cost. Macro forecasts indicate slower growth, climbing inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. The coming weeks will determine whether more countries secure exemptions—or face steep global trade consequences.

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