There are several reasons why the crypto markets are not bullish right now (July 2025), despite occasional price spikes. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors affecting sentiment:
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📉 1. Macro Uncertainty (Trump Tariffs, Global Trade Tensions)
Trump's new tariffs and "America First" trade agenda are rattling global markets.
Tariffs are pushing inflation up slightly and causing risk-off sentiment—investors avoid volatile assets like crypto.
Many investors are parking funds in safe-haven assets (USD, gold) instead of crypto.
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🏛️ 2. US Regulatory Crackdowns & Election Uncertainty
The SEC and CFTC are still active in lawsuits or enforcement actions, especially post-ETF approval.
Stablecoin regulation is being debated in Congress, creating uncertainty around liquidity flows.
The 2024 election cycle brought hopes for a bullish pivot, but now, Trump's mixed stance on crypto leaves investors cautious.
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💹 3. Low Institutional Inflows Post Spot ETF Launch
After the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs launched earlier this year, much of the institutional buying slowed.
“Buy the rumor, sell the news” effect hit hard — prices spiked pre-ETF and corrected after.
Grayscale outflows and profit-taking by institutions are weighing on prices.
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🧮 4. Weak On-Chain & Derivatives Metrics
Funding rates are neutral or negative → no sign of strong bullish bets.
Open interest on Bitcoin and ETH futures is declining → reduced trader conviction.
Stablecoin market cap (proxy for dry powder) has stalled → no new buying pressure.
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📊 5. Technical Chart Structure Still Bearish
Major coins like BTC and SOL are failing to break key resistance levels (e.g., $110K for BTC, $160 for SOL).
Lower highs and lower lows on daily charts signal a cautious, sideways trend.
Volume is weak, meaning rallies lack strength.
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🌐 6. Global Liquidity Tightness
Central banks globally (Fed, ECB) remain cautious with rate cuts.
High interest rates make yield-bearing assets more attractive than speculative crypto.
Liquidity is flowing out of risk markets and into cash, treasuries, or stable blue chips.
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💬 7. Narrative Fatigue
No strong new crypto narrative in 2025 so far (like DeFi in 2020, NFTs in 2021, AI coins in 2023).
Memecoins and politics (e.g., $TRUMP, $BODEN) have limited investor confidence.
Retail is tired, sidelined, or burned out after multiple “fakeouts.”
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🧠 Summary:
Crypto isn't bullish yet because of a combination of:
Geopolitical and macro headwinds,
Lack of strong inflows or hype cycles,
And technical weakness across major coins.
The next potential bull catalyst may be:
Rate cuts by the Fed or ECB,
Clear crypto-friendly policy in the US,
Or a breakout above major resistance levels with volume.
Trade on here $BTC