How to Determine Buy and Sell Timing in the Cryptocurrency Market?
1. Look at Technical Analysis:
Moving Averages (MA)
Buy Point: Short-term moving average (5-day) crosses above long-term moving average (20-day), such as when BTC breaks above the 20-day moving average
Sell Point: Short-term moving average crosses below long-term moving average, such as when ETH falls below the 5-day moving average
Support and Resistance Levels
Buy Point: Price drops to historical support level (e.g., BTC repeatedly stops falling at $25,000)
Sell Point: Price rises to historical resistance level (e.g., ETH repeatedly encounters resistance at $2,000)
MACD Golden Cross / Death Cross
Buy when Gold Cross (white line crosses yellow line), sell when Death Cross (yellow line crosses white line)
2. Look at Market Sentiment:
Fear and Greed Index
Sell when Greed Value > 70 (e.g., in 2024 when BTC rises to $60,000, index reaches 85)
Buy when Fear Value < 30 (e.g., in 2022 bear market when index repeatedly falls below 20)
Volume Spike
If a coin's trading volume suddenly doubles in one day, it may signal major players entering, you can follow
Sell during continuous shrinking volume increases (lack of funding to support may lead to drops)
3. Look at Fundamentals:
Major Positive / Negative News
Buy before positive news: e.g., price often rises in the month before ETH upgrade
Sell when positive news is fully priced in: e.g., after a coin is listed on a major exchange, it often experiences 'sell the news'
Halving Cycle
BTC halves every 4 years, tends to rise 6 months before halving (e.g., before halving in April 2024, BTC rises from $16,000 to $40,000)
4. Ironclad Rules:
Do not chase highs and cut losses
Do not buy after 3 consecutive days of increases, do not sell after 5 consecutive days of decreases (avoid being washed out by short-term volatility)
Buy and sell in batches
Buy in 3 parts: buy 1/3 when it drops 10%, buy another 1/3 when it drops 20%, buy the final 1/3 when it breaks support
Sell in 2 parts: sell half when it rises 50%, sell all when it breaks previous high
Set Stop Loss and Take Profit
Stop Loss: sell decisively when price drops 15% below purchase price
Take Profit: take profit in batches when gaining 30%-50% (can relax to 100% in a bull market)
Ultimate Rule:
Buy big on big drops, buy small on small drops; sell when good news is realized, buy when bad news is fully priced in; when others are greedy, I run; when others are fearful, I pick up the bargains!#美国加征关税 #日内交易策略 #香港稳定币条例 #马斯克计划成立美国党 #长期持有策略