Finding Order in Chaos: The Art of Balancing Short-term Fluctuations and Long-term Value of BTC

"Every market fluctuation is a recalibration of faith - when policy fog intertwines with institutional undercurrents, Bitcoin's scarcity will ultimately penetrate the short-term noise."

1. Technical Front: Bull-Bear Battle in Fluctuating Bottoming

  1. Trends and Key Price Levels
    Currently, BTC is at$108,785 key support zone(weekly level), the 4-hour chart shows a 'long lower shadow + bullish engulfing' pattern, indicating strong buying support in the $107,000-$108,000 range. However, daily MA5/MA20/MA60 moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with resistance rising to $112,166, which must be broken to confirm a rebound trend.

  2. Indicator Signals

    MACD: Histogram remains positive but has not formed a golden cross, indicating accumulation of bullish strength;

    RSI: Neutral range (51.4), volume-price divergence suggests that a short-term directional choice is imminent; Trading Volume: Recent trading volume has moderately increased, but lacks explosive growth, caution is needed for 'volume-less rebounds.'

2. News Front: The Trio of Policy, Institutions, and Macroeconomics

  1. Regulatory Game: Fog and Dawn Coexist

    Bearish: Trump's government imposes tariffs, raising concerns about stagflation, putting pressure on risk assets;

    Bullish: IMF promotes global crypto regulatory framework, El Salvador increases holdings to 6,055 BTC, continuously strengthening national reserve attributes.

  2. Institutional Trends: Underlying currents of layout

    Metaplanet: Japanese listed company purchases another 2,205 BTC, with a holding cost of $99,307, showing institutional determination to buy on dips;

    ETF Funds: Bitcoin spot ETF weekly net inflow of +$1.5 billion, traditional capital continues to provide support.

  3. Macroeconomic Variables: Expectations for Fed rate cuts
    Although the latest meeting minutes suggest fewer rate cuts, the market still expects four rate cuts in 2025. Historical data shows that during rate cut cycles, the negative correlation between BTC and USD strengthens, which may attract capital inflows.

3. K-line Judge · Final Decision: Short-term fluctuations do not change long-term value

The current market is in a phase of 'policy sensitivity + technical repair': Short-term (1-2 weeks): $108,785 is the watershed for bulls and bears; if it holds, it may rebound to $112,000-$114,500; if it breaks down, it may drop to $102,000; Mid to long-term (3-6 months): Institutional holding costs are concentrated in the $105,000-$107,000 range, combined with the Taproot upgrade to improve network efficiency, BTC's scarcity as 'digital gold' will support its breakthrough above $120,000.

4. Mastering K-lines: The Ultimate Trading Secret: Layered Responses, Balancing Offense and Defense

(1) Short-term Trading Strategy

  1. Bullish Strategy

    • Entry Point: Light position near $108,785 to test long, with a stop loss set at $107,544;

    • Target Level: $112,000 (resistance level), add positions after breaking above to $114,500.

  2. Bearish Strategy

    • Entry point: If it falls below $107,000, short at $107,500 with a stop loss at $108,500;

    • Target level: $106,500 (weekly support).

(2) Mid to Long-term Allocation Suggestions

  1. Dollar-cost averaging strategy: Invest a fixed amount weekly, spreading costs in the $106,000-$110,000 range;

  2. Options Hedge: Buy $105,000 put options (to protect against downside risk) and simultaneously sell $115,000 call options (to reduce holding costs).

(3) Solution for Unwinding Positions

  1. Passive Unwinding: Close leverage positions and hold until above $112,000 for partial profit-taking;

  2. Active Unwinding:

    Cost Averaging: Add positions around $108,785, sell part of the position when it rebounds to $112,000; Shift Strategy: Convert 30% of BTC into stablecoins to participate in DeFi lending (annualized 5%-8%), while retaining 70% BTC for a rebound.

5. Core Logic: Grasping Certainty Amid Uncertainty

The ultimate value of BTC comes from its 'code-enforced scarcity' - a hard cap of 21 million that cannot be altered, with global computing power security continuously increasing. Short-term policy disturbances will eventually fade, while the triple drive of institutional entry, technological iteration, and macro risk aversion demand will propel it to become the 'ultimate reserve asset of the digital age.'

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