Market Analysis Today
Today's market came in very straightforward as usual. After the fluctuations over the weekend, Bitcoin still hasn't broken the $110,000 mark, but instead continues to consolidate, forming a market structure of "weak upward momentum, shorts not retreating." But don't underestimate this "fluctuation"; it might not be a pause, but rather the prelude to a washout.
"Last week we mentioned that, despite Bitcoin appearing strong, the daily chart shows a long upper shadow, which doesn't count as a valid breakout."
"At that time, we provided a left-side bearish strategy, targeting the gap filling position."
"Now looking back, it has just hit the $107,200 line, perfectly filling the CME gap, and then rebounding—timing is spot on."
The current structure is still a typical fluctuating market; from the daily chart, Bitcoin has reached the upper shadow + recovery range again, with short-term resistance concentrated around $109,000-$110,000, and support at $107,000-$105,000, aligning with the previous gap and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. More critically, the weekly chart shows that for several weeks it has been unable to stabilize above $110,000, being pushed down each time, indicating that bulls are hesitant and the market is being controlled by the whales. As for the reason behind the weekend's rise, it was simply due to an uncertain positive news, which really doesn't count as a solid positive development, but rather a postponement of a negative impact.
During times like this, the most important thing is not to predict price movements, but to set a trading plan; look for a double bottom structure to re-enter the market on a pullback to $107,000-$105,000. If the price breaks out, do not chase high; instead, wait for a second bottom test. Near $110,000, if a false breakout + recovery occurs, that would be a shorting opportunity. Coupled with the uncertainty in news, it is very likely that we will see a high-level bait-and-switch followed by a crash.
