In the crypto space, there is no eternal sideways movement, only a buildup for a surge! SOL is like a dragon pressed in shallow waters, and now institutional funds are flooding in, with fractal patterns hiding a 34% surge secret — it’s time to bet on this 'high volatility breakout battle'!

What is SOL really doing now?
SOL's price is hovering around 150, having risen 6% this week. It can't break the resistance level of 154, and trading volume has shrunk, indicating that everyone is watching and hesitant to act. But don't be deceived by short-term fluctuations — its TVL (Total Value Locked) has surged to $861 million, ranking second among public chains, even leaving Ethereum behind! It's like a usually quiet student suddenly scoring second in the class; the strength cannot be hidden!

Why are institutions buying SOL like crazy?
Recently, SOL's ETF products just launched, and the trading volume broke 67 million in two days, which is even more intense than XRP's ETF during the same period; large funds are rushing in like sharks smelling blood. What's even crazier is that an institution called DeFiDevelopmentCorp directly bought 17,760 SOL (worth 2.72 million), which is not small potatoes, but a real vote of confidence: 'We are optimistic about SOL's future!'
Let me give you an example: When Bitcoin's ETF was just approved in 2023, the price rose 40% in a month. Now that SOL's ETF is just getting started and institutions are gradually entering, what do you think will happen next?

Technical analysis: Can SOL replicate the surge in April?
Currently, SOL's price trend is almost identical to the 65% surge before April 2025! At that time, it broke the 'ascending parallel channel' and surged to 208; if history repeats, the target price is also 208 (+34%).
Let's look at the indicators:

  • MACD: The daily line just formed a golden cross, and the histogram is turning red, indicating that the bulls are secretly gaining strength;

  • RSI: 54.51 (neutral to strong); if it breaks 60, the upward trend will be confirmed;

  • Bollinger Bands: The price is closely hugging the middle band (150.09), and once it breaks the upper band 159.53, it may trigger a trend.

On-chain data: Some are fleeing, while others are adding positions?
Strangely, although the price is rising, the number of weekly active addresses has dropped to early May lows, indicating that some retail investors are leaving. But the derivatives market is completely opposite — the perpetual contract funding rate is positive (0.0025%), and open contracts are increasing, with bulls clearly in control.
It's like a boxing match: the audience is leaving, but heavy bets are being placed on the winner at ringside. Who do you think is more likely to laugh last?

5. Key price levels: Where is SOL's 'life and death line'?

  • Resistance level: 153−160 is a strong resistance zone (symmetric triangle upper band + Fibonacci retracement level); after breaking, the target is directly aimed at 165−175 (March high);

  • Support level: 148−142 is the daily level rising trend line, breaking below may test 130 (Fibonacci 0.5 level); the worst-case scenario is dropping to 115-$100 (macro bullish last defense line).

Risk warning: Where are SOL's 'minefields'?

  • Insufficient buying momentum: If institutional buying slows down or ETF fund inflows decrease, the price may directly crash back below $130;

  • Technical failure: Fractal patterns require volume support, and with such low trading volume now, false breakouts are easy (for example, the price goes up and then falls back down);

  • Ecosystem user loss: A decline in active addresses will weaken the network effect, affecting medium to long-term valuation (think of those fading public chains).

How to operate in July?

  • Short-term: Break above 153 with light positions, target 165, stop loss at $148 (quick in and out, don't be greedy);

  • Medium to long-term: Buy in batches at 142−135, stop loss at 130, target 180+ (suitable for patient capital);

  • Hedging: While holding spot, buy put options below $140 to guard against black swans (like sudden regulatory crackdowns).

Personal view of Shen Ce: Is SOL a 'small Ethereum' or a 'flash in the pan'?
I think SOL is more like 'Ethereum 2.0' — its TVL has grown by 43.5%, monthly trading volume has skyrocketed by 35%, and institutions are still buying crazily, with ecosystem activity far surpassing most public chains. But the risks are also clear: if active addresses continue to decline, or if Bitcoin crashes and drags down the market, SOL may revert to its original state.
My strategy: 70% position for trend (add position on breaking $153), 30% position for hedging (buy put options), offensive and defensive.

Is your SOL a 'wealth code' or a 'pump and dump'?
SOL is at a crossroads now: Breaking 153 may replicate the surge in April; dropping below 142 may reenact last year's deep drop. Are you ready?
Tell me in the comments: Do you think SOL can reach $200 in July? If likes exceed 1000, the next issue will reveal 'the full list of SOL institutional holdings'!

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