In the world of cryptocurrency, Dogecoin has never played by the rules; it resembles the tweets of Musk—either making you rich overnight or making you question your life.

The recent market for DOGE perfectly exemplifies what it means to be an 'emotion-driven asset': just last week it broke through $0.17, only to almost drop back to $0.15 due to the 'war of words' between Musk and Trump, and now it's stuck at the crossroads of $0.172—will it continue to rise or turn down? Let's analyze this 'dramatic play' from both the news and technical perspectives.

News aspect: Musk, regulation, and the unlocking wave—three forces pulling DOGE.

Recently, DOGE's volatility centers around three keywords: Musk, regulation, unlocking.
Let's start with Musk. This 'Dogecoin Godfather' has been unusually quiet lately—his last public mention of DOGE was three months ago, while in the past, a single tweet from him could make DOGE rise 30%. The market is starting to worry: has Musk 'abandoned' DOGE? But don't forget, after Musk's 'silence' in March 2025 led to a 1/3 drop in DOGE, it rebounded to $0.18. What does this indicate? DOGE's 'Musk dependency' is weakening, but community sentiment remains a key variable—if Musk suddenly posts a Shiba Inu meme one day, DOGE could shoot up to $0.2 in no time.

Now let's look at regulation. Recently, the global regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrency has been polarized: Hong Kong is set to implement a stablecoin licensing system in July, and the Central Bank of Bahrain has launched a stablecoin regulatory framework, which is indirectly beneficial for DOGE, a 'Meme coin' (as funds flow from strictly regulated areas to high-volatility assets); however, Sweden is seizing illegal crypto assets, and the U.S. Department of Justice is cracking down on crypto fraud, which has left the market on edge. The 'carrot and stick' combination of regulation has intensified short-term volatility for DOGE, but in the long run, as long as it doesn't face a 'one-size-fits-all' policy, community enthusiasm can sustain the price.

Finally, there's the unlocking wave. On July 3, DOGE unlocked 95 million coins (about $14.7 million). Although this is a small proportion, the market is concerned that 'whales' (large holders) might sell off to cash out. However, historical data shows that the impact of DOGE's unlocking wave is limited—after unlocking 120 million coins in December 2024, the price actually rose from $0.12 to $0.15. The key is not the unlocking volume, but whether the 'whales' will sell collectively. Current on-chain data shows that the holdings of the top 100 addresses are stable, indicating that large funds are still 'holding their positions.'

Technical aspect: $0.17 is the 'line of life and death'; if it breaks through, look for $0.18, if it falls below, look for $0.15.

Currently, DOGE is stuck at $0.172; technical indicators show fierce bull-bear competition, but there are several key signals worth noting:

1. Support and resistance levels: $0.17 is the 'bull-bear dividing line.'
The recent 4-hour candlestick shows that DOGE has been oscillating around $0.17—dropping to a low of $0.1631 on July 4 and rising to $0.1752 on July 6. $0.17 is a strong short-term support level; if it breaks, it could drop to $0.1595 (Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618); if it holds, the upper resistance level is at $0.1751 (recent high), and a breakthrough could lead to $0.18 (psychological level).

2. MACD and KDJ: The strength of the bulls is weakening, but don't rush to 'short.'
Recently, the MACD histogram has remained negative and gradually shortened, indicating an increase in bull power, but with insufficient momentum; the KDJ indicator shows the J-line at 14 (oversold range), and the K-line is around 20, indicating a short-term rebound need, but the strength may be limited. Analyzing the volume-price relationship, on July 6, when the price rose, the trading volume decreased, suggesting weakened upward momentum, but there were no panic signals of 'increased selling.' Current DOGE is like a 'spring'—the harder it is pressed, the stronger the rebound, but don't expect it to shoot up in one go.

3. Elliott Wave Theory: DOGE may be undergoing a 'C wave correction.'
From the bear market low of $0.045 in 2022 to the high of $0.48 in December 2024, DOGE completed a clear '5-wave rise' (the 'impulse wave' in Elliott Wave Theory), and it may now be entering the C wave phase of the 'ABC correction wave.' Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, the target for the C wave may be $0.213 (0.382 retracement level) or $0.235 (0.618 retracement level). If the price retraces to these two ranges, it could be a 'buying opportunity'—after all, DOGE has consistently broken historical highs after retracing to the 0.382 level (for example, from $0.05 to $0.74 in 2021, which is a typical 'retrace-breakthrough' pattern).

Personal opinion from Shen Ce: DOGE is a 'high-risk high-return' gamble, but don't go all in.

As the 'King of Meme Coins', DOGE's value has never relied on technology or fundamentals, but rather on community sentiment and celebrity effect. Current DOGE is like 'the Tesla of the cryptocurrency world'—Musk is 'Musk', the community is the 'retail army', and regulation is the 'policy risk', all three are indispensable.

Short term (1-2 weeks): DOGE is likely to oscillate in the $0.16-$0.18 range. A breakthrough above $0.18 requires a dual catalyst of 'Musk's tweet + Bitcoin rise'; otherwise, it may retest $0.16.
Mid-term (1-3 months): If the community can push Tesla and SpaceX to accept DOGE payments (even if just 'rumors'), the price may surge to $0.25; but if regulation tightens or Musk 'goes silent', it may drop back to $0.12.
Long term (over 1 year): DOGE's ultimate goal is 'de-Meme-ification'—either becoming a 'payment coin' (as originally designed) or being replaced by new Meme coins. Currently, the former seems more likely, but it requires time.

Case reference: In May 2021, Musk tweeted that 'Tesla will suspend accepting Bitcoin payments but will explore Dogecoin,' causing DOGE to surge 20% that day; in December 2024, community rumors suggested 'SpaceX will use DOGE to pay for satellite launch fees,' leading to a 40% price increase within a week. The market for DOGE is always tied to 'rumors'—as long as the community is active enough, the price can 'fly.'

Is DOGE's next stop 'heaven' or 'hell'?

Current DOGE is like a Shiba Inu standing on the edge of a cliff—one step forward is 'the starry sea of $0.2', one step back is 'the abyss of $0.15'. Will you choose to 'take a gamble' for high returns, or 'watch the excitement' until the trend is clear?

Operational suggestions:

  • Short-term traders: Pay attention to the $0.17 support level. A breakthrough above $0.175 can lead to light position buying, with a stop-loss at $0.168; if it falls below $0.168, exit with a stop-loss.

  • Long-term investors: Wait for the price to retest the $0.15-$0.16 range and build positions gradually, targeting $0.25, with a stop-loss at $0.14.

  • Risk warning: DOGE's volatility is 3 times that of Bitcoin, so don't use 'retirement funds' to play with it, and definitely don't leverage!

Lastly, let me ask: Do you think DOGE can break $0.2? Let's discuss in the comments; your opinion might influence market sentiment! Follow Shen Ce for real-time strategies!