First, macro liquidity refers to the abundance of funds in the global financial system.

Let's start with the overall conclusion: global central banks are still withdrawing funds from the market, but the intensity and speed of this withdrawal have slowed down. The most tense phase may be passing, and we are now at a turning point.

Looking at the Federal Reserve's data:

Balance sheet reduction: As of July 2, 2025, the total balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has decreased to $6.66 trillion, having reduced by about $562 billion over the past year. It continues to withdraw base money from the market, but the pace has significantly slowed down.
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At the same time, two indicators show that a large amount of funds are not actively circulating in the economy: 1) The overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) balance is as high as $631.1 billion, which is idle money held by financial institutions at the Federal Reserve; 2) The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has rebounded to $372.2 billion, which is the liquidity that the U.S. government has temporarily 'seized' from the market.

Most importantly, M2 in the U.S. has risen to $21.94 trillion in May, an increase of about 4.2% since the beginning of the year, although this growth rate is far below the peaks of 2021-2022. The momentum for money creation is weak, which indirectly confirms that we have never entered a real bull market.

In stark contrast to the macro situation, the liquidity in the crypto market itself is very abundant.

Stablecoins are rapidly expanding, with a total market value of approximately $255.6 billion. Among them, USDT holds a dominant position with a scale of $158.6 billion, accounting for 62%, while USDC ranks second with $62.2 billion (24%).

Stablecoins are the most direct base money in the crypto market, with USDT and USDC alone adding about $48 billion in supply in 2025, keeping liquidity at a high level. Additionally, Tether holds over $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, and its interest income can support the issuance of its stablecoins, meaning that crypto liquidity has a continuous supply source.

Even without considering stablecoins, the total value locked in DeFi exceeds $11.6 billion, with lending protocols reaching a historical high of $55.6 billion TVL.

Is there a lack of liquidity in crypto? Actually not; most of the liquidity is earning relatively stable returns and has not directly flowed into the secondary market.

The altcoin season is still something to look forward to.

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