1. Market Observation
Last week, the US market was closed for three days due to the Independence Day holiday and weekend, resulting in a highly tense market sentiment before reopening. During this period, the 'Big and Beautiful' bill and tariff policy adjustments signed by the Trump administration became the focus. US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo revealed that higher tariffs may take effect on August 1. Meanwhile, the US stock market set historical highs almost daily over the past week, driven by investor optimism about the global economic outlook, pushing the 'TACO' trading model, but asset management companies' excessive bullishness on US stocks may lead to concentrated market positions, and once negative news appears, volatility may intensify.
In addition, the Hong Kong market is focusing on the key infrastructure that supports the value flow of the entire crypto world - stablecoins. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that the prosperity of stablecoins depends on whether public chains can meet their value flow needs. Data shows that in Q1 2025, the trading volume of USDT on TRON exceeded 50%, surpassing Ethereum for the first time. He stated that HashKey Chain, as a compliant public chain, is building a 'Issuance-Scenario-Assetization' closed loop, helping stablecoins integrate into the financial system and enhancing issuance and circulation efficiency through the HashKey ecosystem.
In the cryptocurrency market, 8 dormant Bitcoin addresses that had been inactive for 14 years were suddenly activated last Friday, transferring a total of 80,000 Bitcoin, causing panic in the market, leading to a 1.46% drop in Bitcoin that day. Although the market worries that the sell-off may have a significant impact on prices, blockchain intelligence firm Arkham analysis suggests that this transfer is more likely a technical wallet upgrade aimed at enhancing security and reducing transaction costs. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the Bitcoin futures gap on CME, with analyst CryptoJack pointing out that the gap is at 107,570 USD, which is generally seen as a potential price return target. Regarding the future market, analysts have given different price expectations: well-known analyst Pentoshi predicts that a historical high may be reached this week, and if broken, the price may quickly rise to the range of 118,000 to 120,000 USD. Arslan Butt pointed out that if the price falls below 107,800 USD, the target price would be 107,208 to 106,275 USD; AlphaBTC is also focusing on the lower support, believing that attention should be paid to whether the CME gap is filled and whether bullish order blocks around 106,000 USD can hold.
Regarding Ethereum, well-known crypto trader Eugene stated that after careful consideration, he chose to bet on ETH, believing that the market is likely to rise this week. He mentioned that the market positioning and driving force of ETH have changed significantly. After the market crash in April, ETH/BTC reached a multi-year low of 0.018, significantly reducing market positions, and the current structural position is at a three-year low level. In addition, ETH is considered the top choice for institutions and traditional finance to bet on infrastructure and stablecoins. ETH carries over 90% of stablecoin TVL, and as the US pushes for stablecoin-related regulations, ETH is expected to continue to be the main chain, attracting more institutional attention. Eugene also mentioned that ETH still has significant room for price catch-up compared to BTC, and if BTC breaks through 110,000 USD, the bull market may restart, while ETH usually performs strongly during this period. He believes ETH has mid-term rebound potential and has adjusted his positions accordingly.
In the altcoin market, the BONK ecosystem's Meme project performed brilliantly, with the token issuance platform LetsBONK surpassing Pump.fun in daily token issuance volume, graduated tokens, and trading volume for the first time, doubling its own token price and reaching a market cap of 11.5 million USD. $BONK itself also performed strongly, with a 24-hour increase of over 16%, and a two-week increase of 60%. Another project USELESS's market cap exceeded 300 million USD yesterday and is currently stabilizing at 280 million USD. Meanwhile, Musk announced the establishment of the 'American Party' over the weekend, leading to a 24-hour trading volume of 28.8 million USD for the related token america on the Bonk platform, with a market cap of 5.6 million USD.
2. Key Data (as of July 7, 12:00 HKT)
(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: 109,165 USD (year-to-date +16.58%), daily spot trading volume 18.15 billion USD.
Ethereum: 2,575.46 USD (year-to-date -22.97%), daily spot trading volume is 12.52 billion USD.
Fear & Greed Index: 52 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.12 sat/vB, ETH: 2.4 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 64.5%, ETH 9.2%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BONK, BTC, CBK, ETH
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0157
Sector Gains and Losses: Meme sector up 5.8%; RWA sector up 4.12%
24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 59,563 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 182 million USD, including 62.89 million USD for BTC, 35.21 million USD for ETH, and 12.51 million USD for BONK.
BTC Medium to Long Term Trend Channel: Upper Bound (108,399.51 USD), Lower Bound (106,252.99 USD)
ETH Medium to Long Term Trend Channel: Upper Bound (2,514.00 USD), Lower Bound (2,464.22 USD)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates short-term through the cost range, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (June 30 to July 6)
Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow of 770 million USD last week, continuing four weeks of net inflow.
Ethereum ETF: Net inflow of 219 million USD last week, continuing eight weeks of net inflow.
4. Today's Outlook
OKX will delist X, BSV, GOG, DIA, BONE, and OXT trading pairs on July 7.
Binance will upgrade its spot API on July 8, with the upgrade expected to last up to 2 hours.
US President Trump will begin sending tariff letters to other countries. (July 8, 0:00)
Neon (NEON) will unlock approximately 53.91 million tokens on July 7 at 8:00 AM, accounting for 22.51% of the current circulation, valued at around 5 million USD.
Today's top 500 market cap gainers: Cobak Token (CBK) up 26.64%, BUILDon (B) up 23.82%, Launch Coin on Believe (LAUNCHCOIN) up 18.50%, HEX (HEX) up 17.6%, FLOKI (FLOKI) up 15%.
5. Hot News
Data: Tokens such as CHEEL, APT, and IMX will see large unlocks, with CHEEL unlock valued at approximately 17.4 million USD.
This Week's Preview | Trump claims no intention to extend the tariff suspension period beyond July 9; Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes.
This Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: Countdown to Trump's Tariff 'Final Review'
The popularity of virtual assets spreads to A-shares, with several listed companies being inquired about stablecoin layouts.
Pension consulting firm Cartwright helped a client allocate 3% of assets to Bitcoin, resulting in a 60% return.
Musk's establishment of the 'American Party' voting ends, with a support rate of 65.4%.
Ethereum Community Fund: Committed to driving ETH to 10,000 USD, details of subsequent work to be released soon.
Analysts: For newly entering companies, the dividend period for Bitcoin treasury strategy may have ended.
Data: Over 30.4% of Bitcoin has not been moved for more than 5 years.
Binance Wallet Exclusive TGE Phase 29 will launch BOOM.
Derive: As BTC and ETH volatility decreased in June, options traders bet on a 'big market' in July.
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto asset fiat portal. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform guarantees.
