Is this bull market just beginning, or is it about to end?
From the perspective of the previous cycles, if we refer to historical rhythms, the Bitcoin bull market may only have 106 days left. It sounds a bit alarmist, but looking at the charts, there are indeed doubts. Especially for altcoins, this bull market has hardly grown, and many mainstream coins are still lying low.
What's more troublesome is that the macro side is also unsettled. Next Tuesday, President Trump will announce a new round of tariff lists, and rumors say this time it could directly cut 30% or even 50% on Europe. If this wave of conflict is not handled well, the impact on the market will certainly be significant.
The more realistic view is: the U.S. itself can't take it anymore.
So now the focus is on whether Trump will 'soften' at the last moment, but this isn't the first time he has said one thing and done another; we really have to wait for Tuesday's announcement. The only thing that's certain is that inflation is likely to continue rising, and the rhythm of the bull market might only see new developments after the Fed really takes action in September.
Bitcoin is holding steady, while altcoins are still lying flat?
Bitcoin has been stable in the last few days; in the short term, we can pay attention to the support at 107,200 and the resistance at 109,200. If you're not looking to trade, you can wait until Trump's news comes out. In recent days, mainstream media has started to collectively release bearish news; while Bitcoin once broke the 110,000 mark, it lacks volume, and the altcoins that should have rotated haven't moved, with market sentiment still struggling.
I am also quite conservative right now; I added some SOL and PEPE this week, bringing back what I had before. As for direction, it really depends on whether Bitcoin can break through new highs and form a standard 'ascending bull flag' pattern.
But the overall market is very stagnant—neither rising nor falling, with no clear flow of funds. The OK risk control turmoil has further worsened liquidity, even the ancient whales have moved 80,000 bitcoins; is this enticing for more buying or for selling short? The market looks confused.
To be honest, aside from shorting altcoins, other strategies in the past six months have felt like just passing time. Since that bottom hunting in April, the account has fluctuated up to nearly double, and now it has almost completely retraced. It feels like a bull market, yet it seems to be playing out like a bear market script.
Is it the tail of a bull or the beginning of a bear? I lean towards 'one more push'.
Although the short-term trend is weak, I don't think the bull market has peaked yet. On the contrary, I tend to believe that the market will warm up again in mid to late August, and Bitcoin will have a chance to create new highs. If the current strong rhythm continues, the weekly Bollinger Bands' middle line (about 95,000) might not even break; at worst, around 89,000 is the extreme support.
The worst-case scenario is that we have already peaked, formed a large double top structure, and started a bear market. But even so, it should still give the market one to two months of fluctuating time, providing mainstream coins with a last chance to escape. Following this line of thought, mainstream altcoins are likely to have a somewhat decent rebound for a secondary peak confirmation.
So I still have faith in mainstream players like #SOL and #PEPE: even if they don't create new highs, a rebound of 50%-70% is a reasonable expectation; for example, SOL reaching 200 and PEPE reaching 2000, doubling is not a dream.
If it really drops, it could also be an opportunity.
Don't forget that the big drop in March and April has actually made many mainstream coins' weekly adjustments quite sufficient; SOL dropped nearly 70%, and PEPE dropped 80%. This rebound hasn't seen much increase, and if there's another second bottom test, like SOL dropping to 110 and PEPE to 600, that would be an excellent position for me to consider directly leveraging long.
I have always believed that a big drop is not scary; the real risk is being heavily invested without patience. In this round, controlling positions and waiting for opportunities is more important than anything else. If the market doesn't trend, then take a break; when there really is an opportunity, don't be vague about getting in.
Q4 is still worth looking forward to; don't fall before the end of the bull market.
Now many people are starting to sing bearish tunes, believing the bull market has ended.
But don't forget: the end of a bull market is often the turning point after a climax, and it won't end in low sentiment. If Bitcoin can really reach new highs and break the double top structure, mainstream altcoins will naturally surge as well; Q4's market is still worth looking forward to.
So, whether you are a 'staunch bull' or now turning into a 'cautious bear', the most important thing is your mindset.
Only 106 days left? It may just be starting. Whether at the end of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market, hold on to the rhythm and don't fall into the darkness before dawn.
That's all for the article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider planning and harvesting with me!