After Bitcoin surged to $110,000, discussions in the market about 'whether the altcoin frenzy will return' have become increasingly intense. As a veteran player who has experienced three rounds of bull and bear cycles, I can confidently say: this carnival will not only come, but its intensity may even surpass the peak moments of 2021. If you can grasp the following three iron rules, you can accurately catch the rhythm when the next wave comes and seize your own opportunities.
1. The 'memory rules' of retail investors conceal the market's 'reverse code'
The most intriguing phenomenon in the cryptocurrency space is that retail investors are always caught in a cycle of 'summarizing last round's lessons but jumping into the next round's traps.' This collective behavior, stemming from human nature, precisely constitutes the reverse code of market operation.
The brutal altcoin crash of 2017 left countless investors with nothing. At that time, the entire network was in mourning, and the survivors reflected painfully, collectively vowing to 'only hold BTC,' believing that only Bitcoin was the 'anchor' of the crypto market. But no one expected that just four years later, in 2021, the long-dormant altcoins suddenly exploded collectively, with obscure small coins and once-popular MEME coins seeing price increases of 10 times or even 100 times. Those who held onto Bitcoin could only watch as others’ assets rapidly expanded, while their own BTC, although rising, seemed insignificant, leaving them regretting as they replayed the events.
After the 2021 altcoin frenzy, retail investors quickly learned their 'lessons' and summarized a strategy of 'going all in on altcoins next time.' They firmly believe that as long as they heavily invest in the early stages of the bull market, they can replicate the wealth creation myth of the previous round. But reality dealt everyone a heavy blow again: during this bull market, Bitcoin's price quietly tripled, stabilizing above $110,000, while most altcoins lost over 80% of their market value, with many investors' holdings nearing delisting. Those who once shouted 'go all in on altcoins' are either stuck at high prices unable to move or have already cried in the toilet after selling at a loss, left with nothing but resentment towards altcoins.
Now, the entire network is once again filled with the rhetoric of 'altcoins are dead, BTC reigns supreme.' Open any crypto community, and you can see investors listing the various 'crimes' of altcoins—overvalued market cap, project parties running away, no actual value... This collective pessimism is precisely the clearest signal. You should know that the market always runs in the reverse direction of retail investors' consensus: when everyone forgets the pain of the last round of altcoins and exchanges their last bit of altcoin chips for Bitcoin, the dormant funds will quietly flow to the forgotten altcoin pool. This is not guesswork, but an inevitable rule driven by human nature, and it is also the cycle that has not changed in the cryptocurrency space for ten years.
2. The capitalists' 'control game' can never lack 'cheap chips'
After being in the cryptocurrency space for a long time, you will understand a cruel truth: there are no philanthropists here, only a group of traders and capitalists who calculate better than anyone else. Every move they make revolves around the core logic of 'buy low and sell high,' and cheap chips are the key props in this game of control.
The continuous decline of altcoins over the past two years appears to be the result of market sentiment being low and funds withdrawing, but in reality, it is a necessary process for capital and project parties to harvest chips. The more fiercely the price falls, the cheaper the chips they can collect, and the greater their operational space will be in the future. Now, if you open the cryptocurrency market cap rankings and scroll beyond the top hundred, you will find that many altcoins have seen their market caps drop below $5 million, and some coins have market caps in the million range. More importantly, among these low-priced coins, many project parties hold more than 70% of the chips—what does this imply?
Let’s do a simple calculation: for a cryptocurrency with a circulating market value of $5 million, if the project party holds 70% of the chips, it means that the chips actually circulating in the market are worth only $1.5 million. At this point, as long as you take out $1 million to drive the price, you can easily push the price up by more than 10 times. When the news of soaring prices spreads, retail investors rush in like sharks smelling blood, scrambling to chase the rising prices. Meanwhile, the project party and capitalists only need to sell a small amount of chips at high prices to recover the cost of driving the price, and whatever they sell afterward is pure profit.
The classic cases of this logic are SHIB and DOGE in 2021: during the bear market, their prices remained low for a long time, and retail investors, unable to see hope, sold at a loss; when the bull market atmosphere began to rise, capitalists suddenly drove the prices up with a small amount of funds, raising prices dozens or even hundreds of times in a short time, attracting the attention of the entire network; finally, amidst the frenzy of retail investors chasing the rising prices, they quietly sold off all their cheap chips, completing a perfect harvest. This round, altcoins have fallen even more, with higher concentration of chips and lower operational costs for project parties and capital—this means that the next round of price increases will only be more intense, and the rise may far exceed previous times.
3. The real bull market has always been a 'national carnival'
Observing the current market, you will find a clear characteristic: Bitcoin is dancing alone while most altcoins are struggling on the ground. Retail investors are either frustrated about missing out on Bitcoin or lamenting being stuck in altcoins—this is not how a bull market should look.
Looking back at the two bull markets of 2017 and 2021, we see completely different scenes: the aunts dancing in the community square would stop you to ask, 'Which coin is making money recently'; during lunch at the company, colleagues discuss not KPIs, but 'which altcoin has doubled again'; even the aunt selling vegetables at the market can say, 'Buying coins can make money.' At that time, cryptocurrency was no longer a 'niche game' for a few people but a hot topic of discussion for everyone. New investors flooded into the market like a tide, bringing their salaries, savings, and even loans; these incremental funds do not distinguish between 'mainstream coins' and 'altcoins,' but only frantically chase those that rise the fastest and are the most talked about, ultimately pushing all cryptocurrencies up together, forming a true nationwide frenzy.
Now, the total number of cryptocurrency users worldwide has just surpassed 400 million, less than 5% of the global population. This means that the market's incremental space is still unimaginably large. When the next wave of new investors enters the market—possibly attracted by Bitcoin's profit effect or moved by the wealth stories of those around them—they won't care about the claim that 'Bitcoin is more stable'; instead, they will feel that 'it rises slowly' or 'the price is too high,' and will flock to those low-priced, rapidly rising altcoins. These new funds are the most abundant fuel for the next round of altcoin frenzy. When the market vendor auntie asks again 'which coin can double,' you should know: the curtain of frenzy has already been raised.
Finally, let me say something from the heart:
The crazy season for altcoins will definitely come, it could be in the second half of this year or the next cycle, but it will not be absent. What we need to do now is not to get tangled every day about 'when will it come,' but to prepare in advance: screen those 'that have fallen thoroughly, have concentrated chips, and have practical landing scenarios'—such as quality small-cap coins in the Solana ecosystem that focus on application landing, or projects that are still quietly pushing for technological iteration during the bear market. Put them on your watchlist and patiently wait for the wind to come.
Remember, the ten-year rule of the cryptocurrency market has long proven: Bitcoin sets the rhythm of the bull market, while altcoins are always responsible for writing the wealth creation myths. Rather than frantically chasing prices when the wave comes, it is better to understand the rules now and stand in the wind ahead of time.
