Bitcoin in the short term could drop to $90,000, but Arthur Hayes sees that an increase in fiscal liquidity stimulates an unstoppable rise towards a long-term target of $1 million.
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will rise to $1M amid fiscal factors fueling the market
Macro investor Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitmex, who currently heads the investment fund Maelstrom, stated on July 2 that the short-term prospects of Bitcoin may depend on the U.S. Treasury's plan to replenish its checking account, the General Treasury Account (TGA), which could temporarily weaken the liquidity of the financial system.
To restore the TGA balance to target levels after raising the debt ceiling, the Treasury will need to issue new bonds - an action that pulls cash out of the market and may adversely affect asset prices in the short term. Hayes explained how this dynamic could impact Bitcoin prices:
"If the replenishment of the TGA turns out to be negative for dollar liquidity, then the bottom will be $90,000-$95,000. If the replenishment is minor, Bitcoin will fluctuate around $100,000 without a decisive breakthrough above the historical high of $112,000."
He emphasized that this is not a call for a full retracement, but a cautious position ahead of the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole in August, which he considers a potential turning point.
Despite this caution, Hayes warns against inaction. In his view, the broader macroeconomic situation favors significant growth for Bitcoin in the coming years. He predicted long-term growth of digital assets driven by U.S. fiscal operations, which quietly stimulate markets without official monetary policy easing.
For those waiting for a clearer signal from the Fed before taking on risk, Hayes issued a warning:
"You will miss the moment when Bitcoin increases 10 times to $1 million, or the Nasdaq 100 index grows 5 times to $100,000 by 2028."
Investors waiting for a formal pivot from the Fed may miss out on the entire rally, Hayes argued, suggesting instead that Bitcoin will outpace liquidity expansion driven by fiscal operations rather than monetary signals.
