Core Events:
July 5: Elon Musk announced the establishment of the 'American Party' on the social media platform X, aiming to 'restore freedom to the people.'
Cause: Musk strongly opposed the 'Big and Beautiful' tax and spending bill signed by President Trump (effective July 4). He threatened to establish a party if the bill passed on June 30.
Public Support: Musk initiated a vote on June 5 asking whether a new party representing 80% of centrists should be created, with over 80% in favor. On July 4, he initiated another vote for the party's establishment, with over 1.08 million participants, 64.4% in favor.
What might the 'American Party' look like?
Core Principles: Fiscal conservatism + active investment in future industries (such as AI, space, biotechnology).
Policy Tendencies (Speculated):
* Reduce regulation to promote innovation.
* Maximize freedom of speech (possibly emulating his management of X).
* May focus less on ideology and more on reform.
* Hold a skeptical attitude towards long-term diplomatic entanglements (but hard to predict).
* Break traditional education models and support skill-first learning.
Target Voters (Speculated): Tech independents, disappointed centrists, culturally liberal individuals who value freedom, social media influencers, and tech-savvy young voters.
Style: Likely to continue the minimalist future style of Tesla/SpaceX, filled with 'technological sense.'
Can the 'American Party' succeed? Public opinion generally believes it is 'difficult.'
Main Obstacles:
Systemic Issues: The American electoral system (such as the Electoral College, winner-takes-all, and strict ballot rules) is extremely unfavorable to third parties.
Historical Lessons: Successful third parties in American history are rare (e.g., Perot received a lot of votes but zero electoral votes) and usually can only sustain themselves for about a decade.
Political Organizational Complexity: Requires offline organization and coalition building; online popularity cannot substitute for it.
Voter Inertia: Studies show that dissatisfied voters from both parties may not necessarily turn to a new centrist party.
Musk's Role: Although he has vast resources, network influence, and followers, he lacks a broad political base within the Republican Party, making it difficult to challenge Trump's position.
Common Role of Third Parties: In the U.S., third parties often act like 'bees'—influencing policy by 'stirring the pot' or siphoning votes from mainstream parties (mainstream parties may adjust policies to appease voters), but struggle to survive and grow in the long term. Once threatened, mainstream parties will absorb their ideas.
Conclusion:
Regardless of whether the 'American Party' can ultimately become an influential party, Musk's actions once again highlight his concern for and willingness to engage in American politics, and he will continue to play an important role in the U.S. political ecosystem. However, given the immense inertia of American political structures, the new party faces significant challenges to achieve substantial success.