Bitcoin is at risk of correction despite stable prices, with declining trading activity and network interaction.
Signals from whale cash flows, trading momentum on exchanges, and valuation indicators suggest internal weakness in the market even as Bitcoin holds above 100,000 USD.
MAIN CONTENT
Trading momentum on the exchange is declining, warning of adjustment risks in the medium term.
Bitcoin whales continue to withdraw funds from exchanges, indicating a trend of accumulation rather than selling.
The Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) index has surged, signaling that Bitcoin may be overvalued.
Are whales losing confidence as outflows from exchanges dominate?
The overall trend shows prolonged negative net flows on centralized exchanges, reflecting the cautious sentiment of Bitcoin whales.
Although there have been small inflows like 25.64 million USD on July 5, the overall picture remains one of continuous outflows, indicating that whales are transferring Bitcoin to self-custody wallets. According to data from CoinGlass, this is often a sign of accumulation or asset protection.
At the same time, trading volume on exchanges is gradually decreasing, making the market less liquid and increasing the risk of significant price volatility.
"Outflows from exchanges often indicate whales shifting to asset protection strategies rather than selling at a loss."
Anna Becker, CEO of Glassnode, 07/2025
What is Bitcoin's NVM index saying about the current valuation?
Bitcoin has a Network Value to Metcalfe (NVM) index of 2.76, up 14.14% from before, warning of potential price inflation compared to network usage.
According to Metcalfe's law, market capitalization should correlate with the number of users. The spike in NVM while trading volume declines often signals a speculative bubble.
CryptoQuant states this is a warning sign, indicating that Bitcoin's price is exceeding the on-chain fundamentals and is at risk of correction.
How does network weakness manifest when price diverges from user activity?
Data from Santiment shows an increasing gap between Bitcoin's price and the number of daily active addresses (DAA), with a negative divergence reaching up to 175.79%.
While the price rises to 108,000 USD, user growth on the network is lagging, creating signs of diminishing actual on-chain commitment.
This indicates that the current upward momentum lacks sustainable support, making the price susceptible to sudden declines when sentiment shifts.
Can Bitcoin hold above 100,000 USD without stronger network support?
Even though Bitcoin remains above 100,000 USD, weak on-chain factors make the growth outlook fragile.
Weak trading momentum and the lack of aggressive whale buying indicate a lack of necessary support for sustainable price maintenance.
Additionally, overvaluation indicators pose the risk of a correction that could occur at any time.
Increased network activity and widespread participation from investors are key factors to strengthen Bitcoin's long-term upward trend.
"The sustainability of Bitcoin's price does not only depend on the current price level but is fundamentally tied to the actual growth and interaction on the network."
Michael Saylor, Founder of MicroStrategy, 07/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How does declining trading momentum affect Bitcoin's price?
Declining trading momentum signals caution, which may lead to downward volatility or price correction in the short term.
2. Why are whales withdrawing funds from exchanges without selling?
Whales often withdraw funds to transfer to self-custody wallets, to accumulate or protect assets against market volatility.
3. What does the NVM index indicate about the rationality of Bitcoin's price?
A higher than normal NVM warns that Bitcoin's price could be excessively valued compared to the actual usage level of the network.
4. Why is the difference between price and active address count important?
This divergence indicates a decline in user interaction, causing the price increase to lack sustainable on-chain support.
5. What does Bitcoin need to maintain prices above 100,000 USD?
Significant improvement in network activity and active participation from both large and small investors is needed to maintain the upward trend.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-co-ben-vung-nguong-100-000-usd/
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