Gentlemen, today I will bring my formal opinion on a topic that no one is talking about, but it is something of extreme importance for everyone.
We find ourselves at this current moment at a crucial point in the Crypto market, both for #BTC and for Altcoins. The upward cycle that we will likely witness in 2025 will be the last time we see exponential valuations like those of the cycles of 2017 and 2020. Let's take a better look at this...
IN MY OPINION, we are undergoing an irreversible transition: the mass entry of large companies, funds, banks, and even governments, which are institutionalizing the market. And once this happens, the asymmetry disappears, and with it, the gains of 10x or 50x.
In the last 6 months, the scenario has been dominated by announcements and movements that consolidate the entry of institutional investors into the Crypto market.
It would be very difficult to bring everyone here, but I will summarize:
BlackRock: In addition to launching the IBIT ETF (already with over $20 billion in assets), it also created the tokenized BUIDL fund on the Ethereum blockchain. Recently, it signaled the intention to launch a Bitcoin ETF in Europe.
Securitize: Platform backed by BlackRock itself, has already tokenized over $4 billion in financial assets.
Andreessen Horowitz (a16z): Continues to lead rounds in Web3 and DeFi projects with billion-dollar investments, maintaining a long-term bet.
According to Reuters, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Société Générale, and Banco Santander are already involved with testing and issuing their own stablecoins or operations involving USDC/USDT.
Standard Chartered is developing a stablecoin backed by the Hong Kong dollar.
In the US, the advancement of legislation on stablecoins has opened the door for more than 12 large banks to start testing with digital assets in 2026.
Notice here that I did not mention 4 other major Banks from Germany and Europe that have signaled to enter the market by 2026.
It's not just about BITCOIN, but also about Altcoins. 21Shares, Canary, GrayScale, and other major Capital Companies have applied for various Altcoin ETFs, including: SOLANA, XRP, APTOS, and other Altcoins.
The listing of ETFs will bring great institutional attention to Altcoins, as is the case with the Own BTC ETF which is already the most valued ETF in all of History and has brought Bitcoin to one ATH after another.
The Exchanges and established coins are also not sitting idly waiting for traditional market institutions to come, they are going there, see:
Exchanges expanded their global presence with major sponsorships: Formula 1, football teams, tennis, and other areas, signaling the transformation of Exchanges into institutional brands.
Crypto Banks
Ripple and Circle are seeking a federal banking license in the US and have requested a "master account" at the FED.
Palmer Luckey (creator of Oculus) is founding Erebor, a crypto-backed digital bank, with $225 million in funding from Founders Fund and 8VC. He is also seeking federal licensing.
Governments are also not falling behind...
The Atlantic Council shows that 49 countries are already testing or launching their own digital currencies (CBDCs), and it goes far beyond that, we can see the US and other Governments desperate to buy as much Bitcoin and Cryptos as possible.
In the US, the GENIUS Act can regulate stablecoins and will open the market for giants like Amazon and Walmart, which brings popular Companies into the Crypto market.
I could continue bringing numerous Companies and Banks that are adopting Crypto, but it has already become clear that mass adoption has arrived and is real... let's move on to the next point.
With the entry of these large institutional players, the dynamics of the bull and bear cycle will be directly impacted, let's take a look at this...
These large investors entering are not focused on the short term, they will play a long game and will not worry about the 4-year format we were following until 2025.
Previous cycles in Crypto have always been very predictable, so we knew that every 4 years we would have a bear and bull market, so if you weren't prepared enough in a bear market, you could wait for the next and make the right move "buying at the bottom" and wait until the top.
So basically people could afford to make mistakes (not entering a market) and still have the next one to fix the mistake and enter the next one, this time it won’t be like that.
In previous cycles, we had profits of 10x / 100x (depending on the cycle), and in the current one forming in 2025 we will probably still have 10x / 30x (some will go beyond that). However, in the next one, we will no longer have these prospects. With the entry of institutional players, volatility will decrease dramatically as these large investors will buy and continue holding regardless of the year or what is happening in the world, they will follow their own agendas for buying and selling, not caring about 4-year or 2-year cycles and with that the returns will be similar to those of traditional stocks (2x to 5x per cycle, perhaps).
Think a little, if these big investors buying in 2025 don't sell in 2026, HOW WILL THE BEAR MARKET FORM? Since the bear market necessarily requires that large investors sell their positions for us to have drops of -90%.
So, if these big institutional investors do not sell, do you think other conventional whales will? Do you think anyone will want to leave where they are very profitable just so they don't have opportunities to enter coins that will continue to rise over the years? No one will do that, of course, some coins will still have people liquidating their positions to take profits, but certainly the best ones they will continue holding and will not leave opportunities for those who MADE A MISTAKE AND DID NOT ENTER in 2025 (waiting for the next cycle), the difference is that this time the next bear cycle will not arrive, at least not as we know it today.
Therefore, it is already possible to perceive the impact cycle after cycle after this, right?!
A second point and no less important is the fact of the demanding and arbitrary regulations we will have with the arrival of formal market regulation by traditional regulators, this will likely make it harder for "hidden gems" to emerge, small projects that started without much clarity, but that over time and adoption managed to develop and bring great innovations, this will not happen anymore in the future... let's take a look at how this will probably be:
The new "promising" projects will likely resort to private funding rounds with "regulated companies in the sector" or with liquidity-generating whales that are already known in the market, these will provide the necessary money for the project to be developed, and of course, whether one or the other... a large portion of the project will be exclusively in the hands of these people who will probably dictate the rules, including making the coin that is starting already listed at a price higher than what most small investors would pay, however, the small investor will end up buying more expensive in this format (there are many other ways this could occur).
Gentlemen, I'm sorry to bring this perspective, but the Crypto market is moving from being the "Wild West" to becoming Wall Street 2.0, don't be fooled.
The 2025 cycle: The last easy cycle?
I believe so! ...But we are still living in a moment where:
Most Altcoins still have low liquidity and are highly sensitive to retail capital inflow, providing some absurdly asymmetric opportunities, especially in key sectors in this cycle, such as: A.I, RWA, DEPIN, but these opportunities are numbered, take advantage!
💬 Final Thought...
I know we all expected an Altcoin market rise in January or February 2025, but we were all surprised by Trump's actions and I don't need to bring them up in this text because we remember well; because of this, we ended up not having enough momentum for a big rise and basically spent until now redoing the high we had in 2024.
I also understand that if you entered in 2024 you must be with a portfolio with an unrealized loss of -70% in some altcoins, but let me tell you something...
Let's suppose you need your Altcoin to rise +400% (4x) to reach your entry price, this is not a problem, as long as you haven't bought a scam (coin with no project), it will still make its way back when we start the Altcoins' rise, and it is very likely that it will still give you profits of 3x/5x.
Now, if you are in the same situation (need +400%) and are in a good altcoin where the project remains solid, building, and active, don't worry about this nonsense of -70%, certainly a good Altcoin will make around 20x in this cycle (and others much more).
Do not get stuck in the mindset that you need to rise 4x, that is nothing for a good altcoin to do in a bull market and it can do this in 1 month when the rise arrives, stop looking at people who have never gone through a bull market and just like you have no idea what it is.
According to a recent report from Binance (search on Google), 45% of ALL PEOPLE IN CRYPTO entered the space in 2024, see this, ONLY IN 2024 more than 45% of the people TODAY in Crypto entered.
Now, do the math... the last bull cycle of the Altcoins was in 2021, try comparing the people who entered in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 take all these years and see this number 45% explode almost to 93%, that is, the overwhelming majority TODAY in the sector does not know what a bull cycle in altcoins is, which explains the despair and fear whenever there is some problem in the world.
Today we have numerous "analysts" that no one knows, no one knows who they are... but they post every day about Crypto, and they even have some conviction in a rise if everything is going well and the market is indeed rising, but if something goes wrong, they also (even "analysts") end up panicking and the conviction disappears, then they panic and post nonsense and their followers end up panicking because they see their idols panicking, it becomes a cycle where everyone sells just because some are selling, but they don’t even know the real reason.
This happens because these guys have not been and have never gone through a bull market in altcoins, and this makes them doubt at the first problem, it is natural and understandable, but you should not let yourself be influenced by this absurd fear, be rational and think:
IF EVERYTHING WERE GOING DOWN THE DRAIN, IF WE WERE BANKRUPT AND GOING TO ZERO, WOULD WE HAVE ALL THIS INTEREST FROM LARGE COMPANIES AND BANKS IN THE SECTOR?
IF THERE REALLY WERE NOTHING LUCRATIVE HERE, WOULD THESE COMPANIES BE SO INTERESTED? IF CRYPTOCURRENCIES WERE A PASSING THING, WOULD THESE LARGE COMPANIES BE DESPERATELY BUYING?
DO YOU THINK THESE COMPANIES AND BILLIONAIRE PEOPLE HAVE ACCUMULATED SO MUCH MONEY BETTING ON THE WRONG THING?
...Now the last question: DO YOU THINK YOUR WORK FRIEND, PARTNER, MANAGER, BROTHER, COLLEAGUE, OR EVEN DIRECTOR OF YOUR COMPANY is smarter and more visionary than:
SAYLOR (STRATEGY)
MARATHON
GRAYSCALE
TESLA
BLACKROCK
METAPLANET
GALAXY
...do you think these big Companies and the people who founded them do not know what is best, that they would be investing in Cryptocurrencies just because they are dumb and your work friend, partner, manager, brother, or whoever else from your circle is THE SMARTEST OF ALL THESE COMPANIES AND BANKS and their advice NOT TO INVEST is the most correct, because asset managers, banks, governments, and large Companies are dumb and do not know what they are doing?! Of course, after all, your friend or relative is THE SMARTEST PERSON IN THE WORLD and that's why they KNOW WHAT IS BEST FOR YOU, great, congratulations... keep listening to that person and you will be the failure.
I dedicated a lot of time today to write and rewrite this article because I would like to give this my view publicly so that it is recorded that at some point I did my best, giving my opinion and encouraging people to think for themselves. When I said 4 years ago that we would have Bitcoin ETFs and that this would take us out of the rise and fall format we were experiencing, several analysts laughed, and even great friends who are at the top of the market asked me not to publicize this because I was very wrong and in 2024 we learned that I was always right, and I hope I am wrong now and that we have the next cycles as profitable as the others, but honestly... I doubt I will be.
Thinking about these future changes, ALL the Wallets that I manage and created for various people since 2016 until now will be instructed to remain with some positions even in the cycle change, because these will be the winners.
My students from the Mentorship and friends I have built over time in Crypto and keep in direct contact with already know my position for some time, and I constantly alert them about this future change, if we are not prepared it will happen anyway.
My last words are: If you are waiting for the "next cycle" to enter YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG, you may completely miss out or it may bring much less profit. The moment is now. This cycle is possibly the last easy and so profitable one we will see in the Crypto market.
Stay prepared, stay safe!
"Bold hearts are forging a future in which Cryptocurrencies will become the global language of innovation and financial freedom, building a new foundation for human evolution."
— Ualifi Araújo