Overall, the market's volatility this week is quite large, with prices once returning above 110,000 but failing to break new highs.
I believe everyone who has chased above 110,000 knows how the price behaved in the past when it reached above 110,000, so I won't elaborate on that.
The three pullbacks above 10,000 have already broken most people's hearts; will this time be the same?
My personal answer is: perhaps it won't break new highs in the short term, but it definitely won't crash significantly.
First, from the structure of the weekly chart, it is clear that the candlestick from June 23 has obviously ended the pullback that started on May 19. This is sufficiently proven by looking at the monthly structure of May and June. Therefore, we can rule out the possibility of a direct and severe drop in the market.
Secondly, let's focus on the weekly chart for this week. The Doji indicates many things; it might take thousands of words to explain. But most directly, it expresses that there is support below and pressure above, while the current price is generally accepted. Now this week is basically settled, and divergences will appear next week or the week after.
Here, let's not consider whether the market can break new highs, but rather discuss three possible trends for next week.
First, a direct rise to around 111,500 (or higher).
Second, after a surge to the range of 109,600-110,600, a pullback will occur, dropping to the range of 105,000-106,000, where it will find support, causing the weekly chart to show another Doji next week.
Third, I need to emphasize again that there won't be a waterfall decline, so it will first drop to 105,000-106,000 before starting to rebound, and this rebound will at least reach above 109,000.
The above is my personal prediction based on the current weekly and monthly patterns of BTC. My personal conclusion is that the risk of going long is far lower than going short, and I do not recommend shorting.
