Bitcoin plunged over 4,000 points, with weak liquidity over the weekend. After a fluctuation, it returned to the 200 EMA line, currently fluctuating around 108,000. Yesterday, Sweet Dream mentioned in the article (The reason for the crash has been found! A whale dumped $2 billion worth of Bitcoin! BTC plummeted!) that the lifeline for Bitcoin is at 108,000. Last night, it briefly dipped to 107,245 but quickly rebounded to 108,000. Currently, Sweet Dream holds a short position at 110,200 and is profiting 257%.
BTC
Bitcoin's daily K-line dropped sharply, hitting a low of $107,245. The reasons for this sharp drop are as follows:
(1) Trump's tariff policy, the trade letter has been signed and will be sent out on Monday.
The key point is not how many countries are being taxed, but the trade volume of these countries. For small countries with low trade volume with the U.S., doubling tariffs has limited impact. However, if a major country is targeted with high tax rates, price increases and corporate profit reductions are certain.
The more troublesome issue is that Trump's tiered tax rates may trigger retaliatory tariffs, driving up inflation and potentially escalating into a trade war. Powell has already warned that rising prices may not be a one-time event. In the next 20 days, policy games and market tug-of-war will intensify, with more harsh words and greater market volatility.
(2) The activation of an ancient address may dump 80,000 Bitcoins.
A Bitcoin whale that has been dormant for 14 years suddenly awakens! Holding 80,000 BTC, worth over $8 billion at current prices! It is rumored to be an early miner who mined aggressively and was shut down for 9 years. Now freed, it has begun transferring in batches, likely preparing to sell.
However, the volume of 80,000 coins can indeed trigger market panic, but this panic comes quickly and goes quickly. The true factors influencing the market are still tariffs and monetary policy.
It hasn't broken below the BBI yet. Although the MACD bears are increasing and the KDJ has a death cross pointing down, the U.S. stock market is closed. So the fact that it could drop so much yesterday from 109,732 to around 107,200 is already quite good, allowing most short positions to be relieved.
Bitcoin rebounds and then crashes?
Currently, BTC has also formed a small rising wedge, which can be understood as a continuation pattern during a downtrend. The short-term level is undergoing a rebound, and attention can be focused on the resistance near the middle track. A rebound is a good thing; otherwise, how could those without short positions find an opportunity to enter? For those with long positions stuck, how could they find an opportunity to add to their positions and increase their stakes?
As the weekend approaches, market liquidity is clearly weakening, and Bitcoin is expected to enter a narrow fluctuation range. Short-term opportunities may increase, suitable for some range arbitrage operations.
Strategy: Short at Bitcoin rebounds between 108,500 and 109,500, targeting a drop to 107,500 to 106,000 and 105,000.
ETH
Ethereum's 4-hour minimum upward level of 2378-2632 has completed a wave correction, but for further upward movement, the completeness of the 4-hour bottom divergence is still needed, so the previous low of 2473 must be broken. Day trading should focus on shorting at the upper resistance of the range between 2526-2555, targeting 2473 and 2444 as important support levels.
Altcoin
pengu
Pengu's project is quite strong, pulling up to 0.017 here. The K-line should have retraced to around 0.0153, but it soared directly instead. It’s likely that there wasn't much volume when it was pulled up (compare the transaction volumes in the chart: 1, 2, 3). At that time, attention was focused on BTC at 110,000, and the consequence of being casual is that a volume-based retracement hasn't happened yet. I hope for a retracement as my position isn’t large enough; a retracement could lead to a higher surge, but if that doesn't happen, I can only increase my position in stages.
FUN
FUN increased 8X in 3 months, many are shorting FUN. The most obvious funding advantage within 24 hours is FUN. Both spot and contracts for FUN are continuously accumulating funds; shorting this coin is akin to licking blood on a knife's edge, similar to last year's TRB.
It has now reached the pressure zone of the last bull market, around $0.02. Although the weekly close hasn't happened yet, the trend shows that the risk has already emerged. Chasing highs is definitely not the correct way to enter!
ROSE
Sweet Dream recommended shorting ROSE around 0.0245 yesterday, successfully hitting the first target with a profit of 108.77%. Continue to monitor the subsequent trends.
On-chain:
Recently, just focus on bonk and jup platforms for on-chain activities:
(1)BONK.fun: The probability of cashing out from dog tokens recently is much higher than other launch platforms. Bonk products are all high quality.
USELESS: A market value of 280 million in one month; IKUN: A market value of 20 million in a week; Wangchai: Surpassing 3 million in market value in one night.
(2) Jup Studio: The platform has just launched, and although the number of launches is small, the leaders are rotating daily, with $URANUS successfully breaking 15 million.
The current upper limit market value of the platform is basically in the millions. A small number of tokens means a greater probability of filtering out premium tokens, and the odds for small market cap coins are relatively higher.