As of July 5, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown high volatility, with both bulls and bears fiercely battling in key price ranges. Market sentiment is cautious, but medium to long-term remains optimistic. Here are the main analytical points for the current Bitcoin market:

### 1. Key Price Ranges and Long/Short Battle

- Support level: $105,000 - $107,100 (if broken, it may correct to $92,000 - $95,000)

- Resistance level: $108,800 - $112,000 (after breaking, it may challenge $113,000 - $130,000)

- Current price: approximately $109,000, within a narrow fluctuation range.

Recently, the market has been fiercely contested around $107,100 - $108,800, with a large number of leveraged positions concentrated in this range. A breakthrough or breakdown may trigger large-scale liquidations, leading to significant price fluctuations.

### 2. Market Driving Factors

#### (1) Macroeconomic and Policy Impacts

- Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 is key; if dovish signals (interest rate cut expectations) are released, it may drive Bitcoin up; if maintaining a hawkish stance, it may correct.

- Inflation data: If the U.S. CPI data on July 15 is below expectations, it may be favorable for Bitcoin; if it is above expectations, it may trigger short-term selling.

- Geopolitics: China-U.S. tariff negotiations (deadline July 9), G20 finance ministers meeting, and other events may affect market risk aversion.

#### (2) Institutional Funds and ETF Inflows

- Bitcoin ETF inflows of $4.5 billion in July, with cumulative inflows nearing $49 billion, indicating continued accumulation by institutions.

- However, recent spot buying is relatively weak, and the market is mainly driven by leveraged futures, with a strong speculative atmosphere.

#### (3) Technical Analysis

- Short-term: If it stabilizes above $108,800, the upward trend may continue; if it breaks below $107,100, it may correct to the $95,000 support level.

- Mid to long-term: Standard Chartered Bank predicts it may reach $200,000 by the end of the year, but short-term caution is needed for correction risks.

### 3. Market Sentiment and Risks

- Greed Index: 73 (Greedy), indicating the market is still optimistic.

- Leverage risk: High leverage trading increases market fragility; if prices fluctuate significantly, it may trigger a chain liquidation.

- Seasonal factors: Historically, Bitcoin performs well in July (average increase of 9.1%), but this year may experience increased volatility due to macro factors.

### 4. Future Trend Prediction

- Optimistic scenario: After breaking through $112,000, targets are $116,000 - $130,000, even challenging $200,000 (Standard Chartered forecast).

- Pessimistic scenario: If it breaks the $105,000 support, it may correct to the $92,000 - $95,000 range.

### Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently at a critical turning point, with short-term volatility possibly determined by liquidation events or macro policies. In the medium to long-term, institutional fund inflows and technical factors still support a bull market, but caution is needed for correction risks from high leverage and macro uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor breakthroughs in the $107,100 - $108,800 range and adjust position strategies in line with Federal Reserve policy.

The above is just a personal opinion, for reference only!!

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