Foresight News brings you a quick overview of this week's hot topics and recommended content:
01 Stablecoins
(The first year of global stablecoins: a new battlefield between China and the U.S.)
(Arthur Hayes: Uncovering the 'conspiracy' behind U.S. stablecoins, how $6.8 trillion in funds became a lifeline for the treasury market?)
(Multiple issuers apply for U.S. trust licenses, is the stablecoin industry storming the beach?)
(The battle for stablecoin infrastructure: The competitive relationship between Stable and Plasma)
02 Regulatory Trends
(The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' ignites controversy, does the crypto industry also get a tax cut?)
(The first SOL staking ETF in the U.S. is here! The era of institutional compliance profits begins)
(From Wyoming to Capitol Hill, how is Bitcoin Senator Lummis promoting a hundred-billion-dollar financial gamble?)
03 Traders
(Mid-2025 Highlights: Who is the 'mudslide' that caused you huge losses?)
(Who is opening contracts on-chain and losing $100 million?)
04 Industry Insights
($620 million, how did the Trump family 'pick up money' in the crypto space?)
(Choosing to buy MSTR stock at a 75% premium instead of buying Bitcoin at $100,000, has Wall Street gone crazy?)
(Vitalik: Does adopting ZK technology for digital identity eliminate risks?)
01 Stablecoins
No one expected that during the crypto circle's lament over where market innovation lies, it would welcome what Paradigm founder Matt Huang described as the 'stablecoin super cycle.' The hot performance of Circle's stock on the U.S. stock market has once again heightened the crypto circle's attention to the stablecoin market. Recommended articles:
(The first year of global stablecoins: a new battlefield between China and the U.S.)
According to data from DefiLlama, as of June 25, 2025, the global stablecoin market has surpassed approximately $252.9 billion, with USDT holding over 62% market share, followed closely by USDC, together accounting for over 85% of the market share. The on-chain transaction volume of stablecoins reached approximately $20.2 trillion, nearly 40% of the transaction volume of global payment giant Visa, highlighting its significant position in digital payments and cross-border settlements.
The craze for stablecoins has even reached major tech and financial giants in China and the U.S. Since the beginning of this year, many global tech and financial giants have accelerated their layout in the stablecoin field, sparking an intense competitive wave. In the U.S., PayPal announced that its dollar-pegged stablecoin PYUSD has been integrated into the Stellar network, focusing on cross-border remittances and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises; Walmart and Amazon are also actively exploring the issuance of their own dollar-backed stablecoin, aiming to reduce payment costs and create a closed-loop consumption ecosystem; Shopify is collaborating with Coinbase and Stripe to support merchants in accepting USDC payments based on the Base chain, covering consumers in 34 countries.
This week, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes revealed the 'conspiracy' behind U.S. stablecoins: using the (GENIUS Act) to promote the development of stablecoins, releasing $6.8 trillion in funds to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, alleviating government financing pressure. How this strategy became a 'lifeline' for the treasury market and what impact it will have on the financial market?
(Arthur Hayes: Uncovering the 'conspiracy' behind U.S. stablecoins, how $6.8 trillion in funds became a lifeline for the treasury market?)
I know many readers want to invest their hard-earned money in Circle (stock code CRCL) or other emerging stablecoin issuers. But don't overlook the profit potential of TBTF banks (including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and BNY Mellon) in the stablecoin space. If we take the average price-to-earnings ratio of 14.41 for TBTF banks, multiplied by cost savings and the potential net interest margin (NIM) of stablecoins, the result would reach $3.91 trillion. Currently, the total market value of the eight TBTF banks is about $2.1 trillion, meaning that stablecoins could potentially drive an average 184% increase in the stock prices of these banks. If there is any non-consensus trade that could allow investors to operate on a large scale, it would be based on this stablecoin logic to create an equally weighted portfolio of TBTF banks.
On June 30, stablecoin issuer Circle submitted an application for a national trust bank license to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and plans to establish a national trust bank in the U.S.; on July 2, Ripple followed suit by submitting a national bank license application, and its subsidiary Standard Custody also applied for a Federal Reserve master account, aiming to directly custody RLUSD reserves. In just four days, two major stablecoin giants initiated critical compliance pushes within the U.S. financial regulatory system.
(Multiple issuers apply for U.S. trust licenses, is the stablecoin industry storming the beach?)
Custodial asset isolation requirements
- Compliance stablecoin's reserve assets must be held in trust, prohibited from mixing with the issuer's own funds, and limited to investments in cash, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and other high liquidity assets, preventing re-staking or leveraged operations.
- In the event of the issuer's bankruptcy, reserve assets as trust property are prioritized for repayment to holders, with priority over general creditors.
Financial institution qualification thresholds
- Issuers must hold federal (OCC/Fed/FDIC) or 'substantially equivalent' state licenses, and unlicensed entities cannot operate in the U.S.
- Scaled regulatory segmentation: Stablecoin issuance ≤ $10 billion can choose state licenses; exceeding the limit will force upgrades to federal licenses, or face reductions.
As stablecoins increasingly dominate crypto payments and cross-border settlements, the infrastructure specifically designed for them is gradually emerging. Stable and Plasma are the two major stablecoin dedicated chains supported by USDT, which not only have different paths but also varying underlying philosophies. Recommended articles:
(The battle for stablecoin infrastructure: The competitive relationship between Stable and Plasma)
It's natural to raise the question - do we really need to build chains specifically for stablecoins? Currently, over 49% of USDT exists on the Tron network, where stablecoins dominate, but Tether itself has not deeply participated in the chain's operation or governance.
The emergence of Stable and Plasma aims to 'siphon off' the liquidity of stablecoins lingering in old networks - not through token incentives, but by achieving 'gentle blood-sucking' through 'free', 'faster', and 'more stable' real experiences. If a complete ecosystem can be built through gas-free transfers, enterprise-grade services, and native cross-chain capabilities, Stable and Plasma may potentially play a role similar to SWIFT in the future - providing stablecoins while also dominating the operational network.
02 Regulatory Trends
On July 1, the U.S. Senate secured enough votes (51 in favor, 49 against) in a procedural vote to advance Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' which previously caused a stir between Trump and Musk. 'One Big Beautiful Bill' has relaxed restrictions, and Musk is ready to flip the table, with crypto also getting a tax cut.
(The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' ignites controversy, does the crypto industry also get a tax cut?)
Elon Musk directly tweeted, 'If this crazy spending bill (the 'One Big Beautiful Bill') passes, a new political party will be formed the next day. Our country needs an alternative to the Democratic and Republican parties so that the people truly have a voice.' Following this, Musk repeatedly retweeted posts criticizing the U.S. for its massive debt, commenting on the rise in debt during the tenures of both parties, saying, 'They pretend to be two parties, but in reality, they are one party.'
In this regard, a previous online vote showed that over 80% of voters believed that the U.S. needs a new political party.
This week, REX Shares officially confirmed that it will launch the Solana staking ETF 'REX-Osprey SOL+Staking ETF' on Wednesday (July 2), marking the first staking cryptocurrency ETF in the U.S. Recommended articles:
(The first SOL staking ETF in the U.S. is here! The era of institutional compliance profits begins)
The regulatory attitude towards Solana staking ETFs has shifted from 'cautious observation' to 'limited acceptance' for crypto staking economics. This breakthrough releases two major signals to the market:
- The embryonic form of a compliance framework is emerging: the U.S. SEC's approval of staking products means that the integration path between crypto assets and traditional financial instruments has been opened, and subsequent approvals for similar products (such as Ethereum staking ETFs) are expected to accelerate.
- Market confidence boost: Institutional investors' recognition of compliant products is significantly higher than that of non-custodial crypto assets, and the launch of this ETF may attract long-term funds from pension funds, mutual funds, etc.
From a Wyoming ranch to Capitol Hill, 70-year-old Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing for the largest financial gamble in U.S. history - to purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years and establish a strategic reserve worth hundreds of billions. This staunch Bitcoin advocate is leveraging her personal investments and political influence to navigate regulatory and environmental controversies, attempting to give the U.S. a head start in the digital finance race. Recommended articles:
(From Wyoming to Capitol Hill, how is Bitcoin Senator Lummis promoting a hundred-billion-dollar financial gamble?)
Regardless of whether her bill passes, Lummis has already changed the perception of U.S. institutions towards cryptocurrency.
The Senate Digital Asset Banking Subcommittee ensures that cryptocurrency receives priority attention from Congress, and the Financial Innovation Core Group provides training for members needing to understand blockchain technology.
Her cooperation with Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand proves that when actual interests are prioritized over ideology, cryptocurrency policy can gain bipartisan support.
Her transparency - disclosing Bitcoin holdings, using blind trusts, and cross-party cooperation - has normalized cryptocurrency advocacy in mainstream Republican politics. She has elevated cryptocurrency from a technological curiosity to a core financial policy issue, creating a framework that transcends her personal career.
03 Traders
Rising tokens always have similarities, while the tokens that plummet each have their own misfortunes. The holders do too. Recommended articles:
(Mid-2025 Highlights: Who is the 'mudslide' that caused you huge losses?)
In the crypto space, the specters of uncertainty often arise, but it's rare for large-cap tokens to drop over 80% within an hour. The storyline of short-term halving or even plunging to the ankles remains particularly 'eye-catching' in this volatile market.
Halfway through 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a V-shaped trajectory of 100,000 - 70,000 - 110,000, and during this time, the 'mudslide' formed by large bearish candles in the crypto space, how many have you avoided?
In the secondary market, big fish eat small fish, but even big fish are helpless in the face of a tsunami. Recommended articles:
(Who is opening contracts on-chain and losing $100 million?)
Currently, Bitcoin's volatility has reached extremely low points, making the market seem 'dry.'
Yet there are always a group of skilled contract leverage players in the market looking for opportunities, gambling on the potential future movements of Bitcoin. They are all former trading warriors who made huge profits during major market trends, with positions that can easily exceed hundreds of millions of dollars. However, recently, several whales that have drawn close market attention and stirred market fluctuations have chosen to 'brave the rapids when they shouldn’t have.'
04 Industry Insights
The Trump family is profiting from cryptocurrency at a speed that far exceeds their traditional businesses, leveraging their fame and connections. Recommended articles:
($620 million, how did the Trump family 'pick up money' in the crypto space?)
On the surface, Donald Trump’s personal net worth seems to have changed little since his return to the White House: $6.5 billion on election day, now $6.4 billion.
However, a deeper analysis of this data reveals a previously unprecedented and obvious shift in how he and his family consolidate their wealth empire, and the speed at which they benefit from their fame, influence, and power far exceeds the past.
Whether applying their brand to real estate projects or linking it to perfumes and mattresses, the Trump family has long leveraged licensing agreements to make quick money, whereas real estate development typically requires years of planning and execution. Now, with cryptocurrency, the Trump family has further accelerated the monetization of their brand.
Additionally, Trump's second administration relaxed restrictions on overseas trading, creating a wealth feast. According to Bloomberg's Billionaire Index, cryptocurrency investments have brought Donald Trump at least $620 million in wealth appreciation in just a few months. This index is the first to estimate the earnings the Trump family gained from projects like World Liberty Financial and Trump Meme Coin (TRUMP).
Companies that include Bitcoin on their balance sheets have become one of the most watched narratives in the public market in 2025. Although investors have various direct ways to gain exposure to Bitcoin (ETF, spot Bitcoin, wrapped Bitcoin, futures contracts, etc.), many still choose to gain Bitcoin risk exposure by purchasing stocks of Bitcoin reserve companies that are significantly priced above their Bitcoin net asset value (NAV). Why can the valuations of such companies far exceed their Bitcoin assets themselves? Recommended articles:
(Choosing to buy MSTR stock at a 75% premium instead of buying Bitcoin at $100,000, has Wall Street gone crazy?)
The table below compares the premium situation of some Bitcoin reserve companies. Strategy is the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings globally and is the most well-known representative in the field. Metaplanet is the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulator (its transparency advantage will be detailed later). Semler Scientific entered this trend earlier and started purchasing Bitcoin last year. Meanwhile, France's The Blockchain Group indicates that this trend is spreading from the U.S. to the world.
The NAV premium rate of some Bitcoin reserve companies (as of June 30; assuming a Bitcoin price of $107,000):
On the surface, the widespread adoption of digital identity based on zero-knowledge proof technology seems to be a significant victory for decentralized accounts (d/acc). It can protect our social media, voting systems, and various internet services from witch attacks and bot manipulation without sacrificing privacy. But is it really that simple? Recommended articles:
(Vitalik: Does adopting ZK technology for digital identity eliminate risks?)
In the real world, achieving anonymity typically requires multiple accounts: one for 'regular identity' and others for various anonymous identities. Therefore, in this model, the anonymity that users can actually achieve may be lower than the current level. Thus, even a 'one person, one identity' system wrapped in zero-knowledge proofs may gradually lead us to a world where all activities must be attached to a single public identity. In an era of increasing risks (e.g., drone surveillance, etc.), depriving people of their choice to protect themselves through anonymity can have severe negative consequences.
