📊 Technical Summary
Price range & consolidation
Bitcoin has been trading within a consolidation band of $100K–$110K, currently at around $108K . On‑chain metrics (IOMAP) show strong support in the $100.7K–$103.9K range authored by significant historical buy volume .
Key levels to watch
Resistance: ~$109K–$110K (seller zone) .
Next upside target: ~$114K – breaking above this could initiate a 25% rally to ~$143K .
Support: ~$104K (50‑day/EMA/MACD level) .
Technical indicators
MACD: Shows a bullish crossover on daily timeframes .
RSI & Oscillators: Mixed signals – overbought on 4‑ and 6‑hour, but neutral overall .
Chart patterns: Descending wedge suggests consolidation may precede a breakout; Elliott Wave analysis hints at Wave 5 nearing its peak .
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📰 Market & Institutional Trends
Institutional confidence remains strong:
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled $4.5B in early July, pushing cumulative flows above $49B .
MacroStrategy now controls 597,325 BTC (~3% of supply), and overall institutional inflows hit $2.7B last week
Dormant coins awakening: Two wallets from 2011 moved 10,000 BTC each—though not sold yet, this could impact liquidity if distributed broadly
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⚙️ Technical Outlook
1. Bull-case breakout:
If Bitcoin breaks above $110K–$109K–$114K, technical indicators support a sharp move toward $143K, with potential extension to $200K–$225K into year-end .
2. Neutral scenario:
Continued trading within $104K–$110K is likely throughout July, building momentum.
3. Bear-case pullback:
A breakdown below $104K could lead to a deeper retracement toward $100K, though strong on‑chain demand makes a drop below $100K less likely in the medium‑term.
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📈 Recommendation
**Trading (short-term):**
Consider long entries on dips toward $104K–$105K, with tight stops below $103K. Partial profit-taking around $110K–$114K is prudent unless a clear breakout confirms.