American bank JPMorgan has published a forecast stating that the stablecoin market will reach $500 billion by 2028. This figure is significantly lower than the optimistic forecasts of other analysts, who predict growth to $1-2 trillion. The bank notes that the main driver of demand remains the crypto ecosystem, where 88% of stablecoin usage is related to trading, DeFi, and reserves of crypto companies. In contrast, only 6% is attributed to real payments, indicating limited mass adaptation.
JPMorgan considers the expectations for the replacement of traditional currencies with stablecoins to be overly optimistic due to low yields and the complexity of converting between fiat and cryptocurrencies. Even with a tenfold increase in payment usage, the market will only grow to $400 billion. The bank dismisses comparisons with stablecoins and centralized systems, such as China's e-CNY or Alipay, emphasizing the uniqueness of the crypto market.
This forecast contrasts with the opinion of Standard Chartered, which predicts $2 trillion due to regulatory changes, particularly the GENIUS Act in the USA. However, JPMorgan sees moderate growth tied to the crypto sphere rather than mass adoption. Further development will depend on regulations and infrastructure.
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