Today we mainly discuss two aspects: one is the xStockS - U.S. stock tokenization products mentioned yesterday, and the other is the subsequent market trends based on major news.

First, let's talk about the first thing:

Yesterday it was mentioned that currently bybit, kraken, and DEXs on Solana have launched such products, and today gate also announced the launch of xStockS products. So these cryptocurrency exchanges are competing to launch xStockS products.

First, the U.S. stock market is indeed superior in terms of growth and maturity, and it has a large flow of capital. Therefore, these exchanges certainly want to list U.S. stocks, and they are competing to launch them now. This is a market capture phase because these excellent U.S. stocks are high-quality assets that can rival Bitcoin; therefore, whoever lists them will reap the rewards.

Secondly, allowing B-circle players to more easily access U.S. stocks actually also provides fresh blood to the U.S. stock market, which is definitely beneficial for the long term. And we know that the crypto market is linked to the U.S. stock market, which means that if U.S. stocks rise, it can lead to an increase in the crypto market, which is also good for the crypto market.

xStocks currently data

Although it has only been launched for 3-4 days, we can see on DUNE that the trading volume was only 1 million USD on June 30, but on July 1 and July 2, the trading volume surged to 6 million and 8 million respectively.

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In terms of trading volume, SPYX and Tesla have relatively high volumes. SPYx is the S&P 500 index. Recently launched stablecoin issuer Circle also has a trading volume that isn't low, with the code CRCLx, and there is also MSTRx, which is MicroStrategy's stock. We know that MicroStrategy is currently the largest Bitcoin hoarding institution in the crypto space, with nearly 600,000 Bitcoins, and they keep buying through equity financing, with their stock price continuously soaring.

So I am interested in these two stocks, as well as Tesla; I will definitely spend some time researching them in detail later.

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So the future trend must be that all cryptocurrency exchanges will embrace this, because apart from Bitcoin, there are no higher quality assets available. If your exchange lists a bunch of junk coins, users will criticize you, but if you list this, there will be no issues, and users will thank you. So this is a win-win situation.

Moreover, the trading volume will certainly continue to grow. The average daily trading volume in the U.S. stock market is about 100 billion to 500 billion, so if the crypto market only accounts for 10%, it would still have a trading volume of 50 billion, which these cryptocurrency exchanges will definitely compete for.

Next, let’s talk about the second thing, which is the recent news.

1. Non-farm Payroll Data

The non-farm payroll data released last night at 8:30 showed a value of 147,000, with an expected value of 110,000, indicating good employment. The unemployment rate is 4.1, with an expected value of 4.3, meaning the unemployment rate has decreased. This indicates that the current economic environment is still good, and the U.S. stock market has reached a new high, which will lead to a lack of motivation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which is bearish.

Originally, there were expectations for two rate cuts this year. However, given the good data, the Federal Reserve may only have one rate cut, which is significantly unfavorable. The crypto market reacted immediately, with Bitcoin dropping from a low of 11.2 to 10.8.

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However, at 9:30 AM when the U.S. stock market opens, it surged to new highs and did not pull back; instead, it surged even more. This is the U.S. stock market; American people really have infinite bullets. This is also why the U.S. stock market has continuously risen for 20 years and always reaches new highs. Americans are also willing to invest their money because, from a historical perspective, as long as you hold for a long enough time, 2-5 years, you generally won’t incur losses.

Then Bitcoin made a V-shaped recovery, reaching a new high at the 11.05 position. Additionally, Ethereum had a big bullish candle on July 2nd, breaking through all moving averages (from MA200 to MA5).

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So how will the market continue to move in the future?

First, we need to look at the performance of the U.S. stock market. Currently, the U.S. stock market is very strong, so don’t think about a pullback. The crypto market is now an accessory to the U.S. stock market; just follow its movements. In the face of macroeconomic factors, all technical indicators are useless.

Second, on July 5th, there is an important piece of news that may affect the future market trends, which is 'Trump's tariff policy.' Previously, Trump announced tariff policies, which indeed caused a collapse in both the U.S. stock market and the crypto market. It was only after Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariff policy that the situation eased.

However, July 5th is the last day of the 90-day period. According to reports, U.S. President Trump reiterated that he will begin sending letters regarding tariff rates to trade partners on Friday (July 4th), refusing to disclose which countries will receive the letters starting Friday. Trump stated that by July 9th, 'it will be comprehensive, and the tariff rates could range from 60%-70% to 10%-20%.' Treasury Secretary Mnuchin revealed that about 100 countries may face a reciprocal tariff rate of 10%.

According to the above news, a 10-20% fluctuation may not have a significant impact, but you never know what kind of tricks Trump has up his sleeve. In any case, we need to pay attention to the progress of this news. Because currently, the only person who can influence the global financial market is Trump!

In summary, during our investment process, the news aspect is very important and can override all indicators and data. We should develop the mindset to analyze the macro environment. For example, currently in a rate-cutting cycle, there may only be one round of rate cuts in 25 years. The U.S. stock market is now in a strong upward trend, and the continued bullish outlook includes xStocks, which is also a factor in driving the U.S. stock market higher. The only black swan at the moment is 'Trump'!

Then look at the project's fundamentals, K-line situation, and market sentiment. This is my research thinking on the project, and I welcome you to discuss with me.

#美国加征关税 #非农就业数据来袭 $BTC