Trump's 'ultimatum': The 24-hour life-and-death situation of the Gaza ceasefire, global markets hold their breath!
News front: The ceasefire agreement is on the verge of collapse, Trump exerts strong pressure.
On July 4, 2025, U.S. President Trump issued an 'ultimatum' to Palestinian Hamas via social media, demanding the release of all hostages within 24 hours, or he would 'cancel the ceasefire agreement and escalate the consequences.' This statement directly threatened the Gaza ceasefire, which had been in effect for nearly six months—the first phase began on January 19 and was scheduled to end on March 1, but had stalled due to Hamas accusing Israel of violating the agreement (such as obstructing humanitarian aid and attacking civilians).
Key background:
Status of the ceasefire agreement: Hamas originally planned to release 3 hostages per week, but due to Israel's refusal to settle 60,000 tents and obstruct humanitarian aid, Hamas announced a suspension of hostage releases. Israel, on the other hand, delayed the second phase of negotiations citing 'Hamas's violation of the agreement.' Trump's motives: Trump proposed a 'takeover of Gaza' plan, attempting to turn Gaza into the 'Riviera of the Middle East,' but faced strong opposition from the international community. This ultimatum is seen as extreme pressure on Hamas while diverting attention from the controversy over his 'takeover of Gaza.' International response: Countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia clearly oppose Trump's 'takeover' proposal, believing it violates international law; UN Secretary-General Guterres warned that this move could trigger a larger humanitarian crisis.
K-Line Judge · Setting the ink: The 'ceasefire trap' under geopolitical maneuvering.
Trump's 'ultimatum' is essentially a high-risk gamble:
Doubts about the effectiveness of pressure on Hamas: Hamas has made it clear that the condition for releasing hostages is that Israel adheres to the ceasefire agreement. If Trump forcibly pushes for military action, it may exacerbate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and reignite hostilities.
The contradictions in U.S. Middle East policy: Trump claims to 'support Israel's security' while being isolated by allies due to the 'takeover of Gaza' plan. This 'America First' unilateralism is undermining its credibility in the Middle East.
Humanitarian crisis escalation: Over 57,000 people have died and 130,000 have been injured in the Gaza Strip (as of July 3 data). If the ceasefire collapses, the Israeli military may resume large-scale airstrikes, leading to more civilian casualties.
Market sentiment: The safe-haven attributes of cryptocurrencies are being tested again.
Geopolitical risks have always been a 'catalyst' for the cryptocurrency market. The impact of this event on market sentiment shows a dual polarization:
Short-term safe-haven demand rises: Bitcoin as 'digital gold' saw its price briefly break $100,000 (June 20 data) under expectations of escalating conflict, but then retreated due to expectations of Fed interest rate cuts.
Long-term uncertainty suppression: If the ceasefire agreement completely collapses, the global energy supply chain may be impacted (security risks in the Strait of Hormuz), rising inflation expectations may force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, indirectly bearish for risk assets.
Current strategy: How should retail investors respond to the '24-hour life-and-death situation'?
Short-term traders:
Bitcoin strategy: Focus on the key level of $103,000; if the ceasefire agreement holds, the price may retrace to the $98,000 support level; if the conflict escalates, then look towards the $105,000-$110,000 range.
Ethereum strategy: Moves in tandem with Bitcoin, but beware of regulatory risks affecting DeFi protocols (such as scrutiny of stablecoins by the U.S.).
Medium to long-term holders:
Diversified allocation: Shift some funds to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar to reduce cryptocurrency volatility risks. Focus on policy: If the UN intervenes for mediation or Middle Eastern countries promote a 'Palestinians governing Palestinians' plan, it could inject confidence into the market.
K-Line Prophet: The 'triple ending' of the ceasefire agreement.
Optimistic scenario: Hamas releases hostages within 24 hours, extending the ceasefire agreement to the second phase (6 weeks).
Market impact: Cryptocurrencies may see short-term corrections, but expectations of Fed interest rate cuts support a mid-term rebound; crude oil prices retreat, alleviating inflationary pressures.
Neutral scenario: The ceasefire agreement undergoes a 'technical extension', but the contradictions between both sides remain unresolved.
Market impact: Bitcoin remains volatile around $100,000, with institutional investors showing strong cautious sentiment.
Pessimistic scenario: The ceasefire agreement collapses, and the Israeli military resumes airstrikes.
Market impact: Bitcoin may test the $90,000 support level, but in the long term, its 'digital gold' attributes may attract more safe-haven funds.
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