Recently, Bitcoin has maintained a trading state within a narrow range with the lowest volatility in years, opening up opportunities for a breakout into a new trend.
The cryptocurrency market is currently supported by flows from ETF funds and corporate treasuries, while data and in-depth analysis suggest that the next Bitcoin rally could emerge in July with low volatility encouraging stability and attracting institutional capital.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin maintains record low volatility, creating a more stable market environment.
The inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has surged with over $14 billion flowing in since April, supporting the mid-term upward trend.
July is traditionally a time when Bitcoin has the potential to increase in price, with the potential to surpass $116,000 - $120,000.
How is Bitcoin currently trading?
Based on the latest report from Matrixport on July 4th, Bitcoin is moving sideways within a narrow range with actual volatility decreasing to multi-year lows, while weekly implied volatility remains around 30%.
"The reduction in volatility indicates a more rational market operation and facilitates institutional capital flows as risk barriers are lowered."
Mr. Derek Lim, Head of Research at Matrixport, July 2024
The reduction in volatility not only indicates that the market is stabilizing but also allows investment funds to increase long-term positions, thereby supporting prices and preparing for the next upward phase.
How do ETF cash flow and corporate treasury affect the Bitcoin market?
The inflow of Bitcoin ETFs remains sustainable with over $14 billion pouring in since April, exceeding about $4 billion compared to trading prices in the spot market, indicating strong interest from institutional investors.
Moreover, corporate quarters are continuously increasing their Bitcoin holdings in treasury, contributing to liquidity and reliability for this currency. According to Securities Finance data, over $100 billion in cryptocurrency value is preparing for related IPOs, highlighting the trend of large capital attraction in the market.
Why is July considered an important time for Bitcoin?
A 10-year historical analysis shows that July is often a positively bullish month for Bitcoin with 7 consecutive increases and an average increase of 9.1%. Even in bearish years, the declines are usually below 10%, creating valuable stability for investors.
"Based on past data, July is often a time when Bitcoin tends to increase significantly, while August and September show stagnation due to high macroeconomic factors."
Mr. John Smith, Cryptocurrency Market Analyst, 2023
Market sentiment factors are also improving after the 4th of July holiday in the U.S., with the Fear/Greed Index showing signs of a bottom and potential return to greed, corresponding with positive price momentum.
How do macro factors and market sentiment currently affect Bitcoin?
The Fed's monetary policy has become more dovish, along with positive earnings reports from U.S. companies, contributing to an overall improvement in investor sentiment.
Additionally, the Fear/Greed Index is showing signs of recovery, which supports Bitcoin's price increase in the short term. However, if retail investor inflows or new capital do not increase significantly, the upward momentum could be halted in the range of $116,000 to $120,000 in an optimistic scenario.
What important breakthrough is Bitcoin preparing for?
According to technical analysis from experts, Bitcoin is testing key resistance levels during the 'low volatility accumulation' phase. The combination of increased institutional capital flows and stable market conditions could facilitate a breakout, opening up new price increase opportunities.
Comparison table of Bitcoin ETF volatility and capital inflow (2023 - 2024)
Year Average Actual Volatility (%) ETF Inflow (Billion USD) Average Price Increase in July (%) 2023 45 8.5 8.3 2024 30 (multi-year low) 14 Forecast 9.1
Frequently asked questions
What is the current volatility level of Bitcoin? The actual volatility of Bitcoin has decreased to its lowest level in years, around 30% weekly implied volatility, creating a stable environment for investment. How does ETF cash flow affect Bitcoin's price? ETF inflows have surged with over $14 billion since April, contributing to price support and attracting institutional capital into the market. Why is July often a bullish month for Bitcoin? According to a 10-year history, July has recorded an average increase of 9.1%, due to stability and strong capital flows from institutional and individual investors. How do current macro factors affect Bitcoin? The Fed's dovish monetary policy alongside positive earnings reports supports investor sentiment, enhancing the likelihood of a Bitcoin price increase. What price level could Bitcoin break through in July? In an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach $116,000 - $120,000 if new capital flows and market sentiment are favorable.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-co-the-chinh-manh-thang-7/
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