Mutations! Federal Reserve, big news on interest rate cuts!
Just yesterday, the United States released important non-farm employment data, which greatly exceeded expectations. The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, significantly higher than the previous expert forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped: The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1%, also better than the expected 4.3%.
This data has a huge impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions. Originally, everyone expected that there might be a rate cut in July, but once this strong employment report came out, the market's thoughts changed immediately.
Currently, a rate cut in July seems nearly impossible. According to the interest rate futures market where traders place their bets, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July has risen to over 93%, while the probability of a rate cut is now less than 7%.
In addition, expectations for a rate cut in September have also weakened. Previously, it was generally believed that there would definitely be a cut in September, but now it has shifted to a greater likelihood of either 'maintaining rates' or 'slightly cutting once'.
As soon as the news broke, the dollar rose, gold fell, U.S. stocks also went up, and Bitcoin surpassed $110,000.
Regarding the crypto market, I believe Bitcoin is temporarily still safe. As I mentioned before, the continuous influx of ETF funds into Bitcoin supports its price. However, the lack of an interest rate cut may be pessimistic for altcoins, and the much-anticipated 'altcoin season' may really be delayed or completely hopeless.
In terms of positions, Bitcoin and Ethereum should still occupy a large portion, with a clear siphoning effect. For altcoin positions, try to choose those with narratives and hot concepts, such as stablecoins, and avoid others!