【COIN Seizing the On-chain Primary Market, How Far Can This Move Go?】
Coinbase recently acquired the token issuance platform Liquifi, aiming to integrate it into Prime to create a compliant version of the "Launchpad." The ambition behind this move is clear: not only to engage in secondary matching and custody but also to pocket the "token issuance service fees" from the primary market, tying the entire lifecycle of startup teams.
The external environment also provides COIN with room for a new narrative: In June, the Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin bill, and in mid-to-late July, the House scheduled a "Crypto Week" for discussions. If this materializes, COIN's revenue-sharing model with Circle's USDC will receive federal endorsement, and just the interest and fee-sharing from stablecoins could create a new cash flow.
Data from the options market on July 3rd shows that smart money has started to place bets: over $90 million was swept into July 215/220 C options in a single day, with an all-day Call/Put transaction volume ratio of 17.6:1, indicating strong directional betting sentiment. Currently, COIN's implied volatility (IV) is at 63%, which is historically low, with a Rank of only 28%, meaning that the cost of going long is low and leverage flexibility is high. Even though Max Pain remains at $330, the actual stock price has stabilized above $350, with high open interest concentrated in near-month contracts, presenting a potential Gamma squeeze opportunity.
