📅 Date: July 4, 2025
✍️ By: Market Insights – ChartWatch Series
🧠 TL;DR
Solana (SOL) is showing early signs of a potential trend reversal on the daily chart. With price consolidating just above the 25- and 99-day moving averages, a breakout above $161.50 could open up space for a move toward $170+. However, volume remains moderate and volatility is ticking higher. Let’s dive deeper into what the chart says.
💹 Current Snapshot (Daily Chart – 1D)
Price: $151.29
24H Change: -0.98%
24H High/Low: $156.35 / $149.86
Volume (24H): 2.67M SOL | $408.75M USDT
Key MAs:
MA(7): $151.66
MA(25): $148.01
MA(99): $148.26
📈 Trend Breakdown
✅ Short-Term:
Price is testing the 7-day moving average but still holds firmly above the 25- and 99-day MAs, both of which are starting to slope upward. This suggests buying momentum is returning, though not yet explosive.
✅ Medium-Term:
An ascending triangle pattern is forming, with higher lows (126 → 142 → 149) compressing beneath the resistance at $161.5. If this level is broken with volume, a move toward $170.90 or even $180 is possible.
⚠️ Watch for: Rejection at $161.5 or a breakdown below $148 could trigger a short-term reversal back toward $142 or $133 support zones.
🗺 Key Levels to Watch
Level Significance
$161.50 Triangle resistance / breakout trigger
$148.00 – $148.50 MA(25) & MA(99) support zone
$142.70 Last major swing low (bull trend support)
$170.90 Potential breakout target if triangle resolves up
⚡ Volatility Check
24H Range: 4.3%
30D ATR: ≈ 5.8%
Recent 7-Day Move: +6.75%
30D Return: -6.12%
90D Return: +22.84%
🔺 Conclusion: Volatility is rising again — not in panic mode, but enough to expect 6–10% daily swings when key levels are tested.
🔮 Market Outlook
Scenario Probability Target
Breakout above $161.50 45% $170 → $180
Sideways Consolidation 35% $148 – $161.50 range
Breakdown below $142.70 20% $133 – $126 retest
📊 Futures Open Interest and DEX activity remain strong, suggesting increasing speculative interest. However, this also increases liquidation risk during volatile moves.
🧭 Final Take
Solana is coiling beneath a key breakout level. The ascending triangle structure and strong base around the 25- and 99-day moving averages suggest that bulls are building pressure — but they need a clean push above $161.5 with volume to confirm it.
Until then, SOL remains in accumulation mode, not full breakout. Stay alert, manage risk, and respect volatility.
📌 Not financial advice. Always DYOR and manage your risk.
💬 What’s your target for SOL this month? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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