Bitcoin has demonstrated a relationship with the global and US-based M2 supply over time. Being particularly sensitive to a constriction in M2 supply, Bitcoin trailed the indication by several months.
The expansion of Bitcoin exhibits a comparable lag, behind M2 growth by three to six months. Shorter term, the April Bitcoin rally, when the price surged and returned to above $100,000 levels, was forecast by the M2 global money supply.
Sometimes, changes in the money supply are followed by a surge in the price of bitcoin that is only 1-2 weeks behind.
Though past rallies are now viewed as indicators of a bubble, Bitcoin has occasionally risen ahead during times of low M2 growth.
When the market has not yet reached its peak with a short-term bubble, the impacts could be more persistent if the price of Bitcoin goes closer to the M2 supply.