After the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market has essentially stopped expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, and the likelihood of a rate cut has significantly decreased, to the point that there is almost no hope left.

In contrast, while the possibility of a rate cut in September has also slightly decreased, it still exists, with about a 70% probability. However, we cannot be complacent, as there is still a 24% chance that there will be no rate cut, indicating that the market's judgment about the future still has discrepancies.

Overall, this data mainly shattered the market's optimistic expectations for a rate cut in July, but whether there will be a rate cut in September still depends on the subsequent economic performance; the current expectations are still considered relatively rational and moderate.

From another perspective, if the rate cut is delayed, it may not necessarily be a bad thing for the market. A slower pace could actually help maintain the current upward trend and extend the duration of the market's bull run.