U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data for June Released: Job Market Steady, Rate Cuts Completely Hopeless?
Core Data Overview: #加密市场回调
Unemployment Rate: Recorded at 4.1%, lower than expected and previous values, the job market remains stable;
Non-Farm Job Additions: 147,000, significantly higher than expected and previous values;
This set of data can be described as 'just right': the economy is stable, not overheating; inflation is moderate, maintaining a controllable level; the employment structure is healthy, and the soft landing path has not deviated. However, precisely because of this, the last hope for a rate cut in July has been utterly shattered. #非农就业数据来袭
This non-farm report is the last important data before July; even if the CPI unexpectedly drops on July 15, it is hard to change the Federal Reserve's path. Moreover, Powell has already given a 'preventive shot': 'Expect summer inflation may temporarily rise.' Coupled with the Middle East geopolitical crisis in June raising energy costs, the CPI may experience a 'passive rise,' which further undermines rate cut expectations. #比特币战略储备
Bitcoin: Slight fluctuations, short-term correlation with U.S. stocks weakened.
The probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to 4.7%, with the probability of no rate cut as high as 95.3%, which can be said to be basically set in stone.
Medium to long-term short positions have been initiated, quick update