Data Nuclear Explosion: Non-Farm Data Crushes 'Rate Cut Fantasy' with Three Major Pieces of Evidence
Job Market Booming
Unemployment Rate Stays at 4.2% (Expected 4.3%), Below Threshold for Three Consecutive Months, Indicating Job Market Resilience Exceeds Expectations;
New Non-Farm Jobs Increase by 139,000 (Expected 110,000), Previous Value Adjusted Upwards, Labor Supply and Demand Gap Continues to Widen
Initial Jobless Claims Number at 236,000 (Expected 240,000), Corporate Layoff Intentions Dismal, Economic 'Soft Landing' Narrative Completely Collapses
Conclusion: The US Economy Does Not Need 'Emergency' Rate Cuts!
Bloody Reversal in Interest Rate Market
July Rate Cut Probability Hits Zero, Traders Collectively Cut Positions and Retreat;
September Rate Cut Probability Halved from 98% to 80%, Expectations of Rate Cuts This Year Suffer Severe Blow;
US Treasury Yields Soared 12 Basis Points in One Day, USD Index Violently Broke 96.8, Global Liquidity Gates Slammed Shut.
Policy Pathway Completely Locked Down
Federal Reserve's 'Higher for Longer' Hawkish Stance Backed by Data, Powell's Toolbox Only Has 'Maintain Rate' or 'Continue Rate Hikes' Left – No Matter Which One Is Chosen, It’s Toxic for Risk Assets.
II. Blockchain Market Triple Strangulation Chain: Liquidity, Leverage, Narrative Completely Collapses
Liquidity Drying Up: USD Bloodsucking Effect Initiated
Rate Cut Expectations Disappointed → USD Becomes the Only Winner, Mainstream Crypto Assets Saw a Net Outflow of 1.83 Billion USD in a Week (A New High This Year);
Stablecoin Premium and Discount Expanded to -1% (Deepest Since May), Asian Capital Outflow Accelerates.
Leverage Liquidation Wave: High-Leverage Contracts Littered Everywhere
Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network exceeded 201 million USD, with 90,000 accounts wiped out;
Key Support Level at 105,200 USD if breached, will trigger 5 Billion USD Algorithmic Sell-off (HTX Exchange Unsettled Contracts Warning Line).
Narrative Logic Disrupted: Institutional Confidence Shaken
'Federal Reserve's Water Buffalo' Completely Ends, Standard Chartered Bank's 200,000 Target Under Reality's Scrutiny;
Spot ETF Capital Inflow Plummets: Daily Net Outflow of 342 Million USD, BlackRock and Fidelity Buy Orders Dry Up.
III. July Survival Manual: Four Steps to Cross the 'Hawkish Nuclear Winter'
Position Management: Cash is King, Gold Mining in the Graveyard
Reduce Holdings in Overvalued Assets (Especially Newly Issued Assets with Weak Liquidity), Retain Over 50% in Stablecoins;
Gold Pit Bottom Fishing Discipline: BTC Pullback to 104,000 (Weekly Support), ETH Testing 2,500 (Cancun Upgrade Cost Line) Can Be Accumulated in Batches.
Hedging Strategy: Using Options to Deal with Policy Black Swans
Buy July 115,000 USD Put Options (Betting on Panic Before the Federal Reserve Meeting);
Sell September 120,000 USD Call Options (Locking in Rebound Profits, Hedging Against Time Decay).
Event Driven: Keep a Close Watch on Three Major Policy Landmines
Potential Impact of Time Events July 9: US-China Tariff Ceasefire Deadline, If Negotiations Fail, Risk Aversion Could Trigger Sell-off; July 15: US CPI If >3.5%, Market May Fall into Abyss; July 30: Federal Reserve Decision Hawkish Statement Could Be the Last Straw for Bulls.
On-Chain Signals: Follow Whale Actions
Monitor Stablecoin Minting Volume: If Daily Increase Exceeds 500 Million, Indicates Bottom Fishing Capital Entering;
Tracking 'Million Dollar Wallets': The Number of Such Addresses Increased by 47% This Year, Their Accumulation Behavior is Often a Bottom Signal.
Iron Eagle's Ultimate Warning
When the Federal Reserve Wields the Rate Knife, Any Good News is Just a Life-Saving Counterattack! If July CPI Surges Again, the 100,000 Level Will Become a Graveyard for Retail Investors!
#非农就业数据来袭
In a time of great change, who can walk alone? The Iron Eagle Elite Team has assembled! No crazy opportunists allowed!
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