Bitcoin has averaged 57% combined gains in July and August during past post-halving Q3 rallies, fueling major price moves.
In 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin surged over 60% in Q3, setting new highs; 2025 follows a similar setup with Q1 and Q2 red.
Strong ETF momentum, institutional demand, and rising M2 liquidity create ideal macro conditions for a potential breakout above $140,000.
Bitcoin has historically posted strong Q3 performances in post-halving years. As Q3 2025 begins, the cryptocurrency trades just below $110,000. Market participants are closely watching for signs of a bullish reversal, similar to those witnessed in past halving cycles.
Crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed out that 2013, 2017, and 2021 all followed a similar rhythm. In those years, Q3 recorded major gains—+61.98% in 2013 and +80.96% in 2017. Although 2021 didn’t mirror this trend, its earlier months had already shown considerable growth. In contrast, both Q1 and Q2 of 2025 have closed in the red, which mirrors the pattern seen before earlier Q3 surges.
https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1940421721301168631
A recent chart shared by Coinglass supports this recurring cycle, suggesting that post-halving Q3 phases often serve as turning points. The analysis reveals July and August as the strongest months, fueling the overall Q3 strength.
July and August Show Strong Historical Returns
Data shows Bitcoin averaged gains of +15.48% in July and +36.51% in August during previous post-halving Q3 cycles. Combined, these months have historically brought in around 57% returns within 62 days. These moves created the momentum that propelled BTC into new price zones during past bull runs.
Davis emphasized this recurring trend, suggesting that even a conservative 30% gain this quarter could lift Bitcoin to approximately $140,000. This would still fall below the average historical Q3 performance but align with the trend of strong mid-year growth.
While past performance does not predict future events, there is a strong argument for how consistent summer rallies are post halving. It keeps traders on their toes, aware of possible price action, while using historical references to keep the potential for a breakout alive in the next weeks.
Macro Conditions and Market Catalysts Align with Historical Trends
In addition to technical patterns, macroeconomic indicators are leaning in favor of a Bitcoin rally. Ongoing fiat currency debasement and record-high global M2 liquidity as contributing factors to the bullish outlook.
Moreover, growing institutional participation and continued momentum from spot Bitcoin ETFs are reinforcing the current market setup. These factors, combined with historical post-halving Q3 behavior, have renewed expectations of another rally phase.
As July begins, Bitcoin’s path mirrors those of earlier bull cycles, positioning Q3 as a potential breakout period.
The post Will Bitcoin’s Q3 2025 Rally Repeat Post-Halving Bull Cycle Pattern? appears on Crypto Front News. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.
